Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: South Alabama Jaguars vs. Air Force Falcons

The 2016 Arizona Bowl free pick features the South Alabama Jaguars vs. Air Force Falcons. The Jaguars played in their first bowl game in 2014 losing to Bowling Green 33-28. They could get their first bowl win here. In nine of 10 seasons, the Falcons have appeared in a bowl game. They are 3-5 in that time.

The South Alabama Jaguars (6-6 Overall, 2-6 Sun Belt Conference) eighth in the Sun Belt. They went 2-2 in their first four. Their big win was in the middle of the season when they surprised #19 San Diego State 42-24. After that big win, the Jags went 3-4.

The Air Force Falcons (9-3 Overall, 5-3 Mountain West Conference) finished fourth in the MWC Mountain Division. The Falcons reeled off four wins to start the season, including a surprise 28-14 victory over Navy. Three losses followed and then they finished the season with five wins in a row. They finished the season with a 27-20 win over #19 Boise State.

South Alabama Jaguars

South Alabama QB Dallas Davis (58.0 COMP%, 10 TDs, 11 INTs) will be tossing to receivers Gerald Everett (49 REC, 717 YDs, 14.6 AVG, 4 TDs) and Josh Magee (44 REC, 668 YDs, 15.2 AVG, 4 TDs). Three running backs have crossed the goal line a total of 21 times. Top ground gainer Xavier Johnson has 147 carries for 787 yards and 10 TDs. He’s averaging 5.4 YPA. South Alabama is averaging 25.8 PPG.

The defense is allowing almost the same number of points as the offense is scoring, 25.5 PG. They have 22 sacks, 81 TFL, and 10 INTs. Other stats include a respectable 16 FF, 35 PD, and 33 QB hurries. One stat that works against the Jags is their 90 penalties for 791 yards.

Air Force Falcons

With QB Nate Romine being knocked out for the season after the seventh game, Arion Worthman (55.2 COMP%, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) has served the Falcons well. At QB, he led the team to victory in their final five games of the season. Air Force is scoring an average of 34.3 PPG with 35of their 48 touchdowns coming on runs. RB Timothy McVey (80 ATT, 667 YDs, 8.3 VG, 10 TDs) is fast and dynamic. Worthman is averaging 5.5 YPA and has six scores.

The Falcon D is allowing opponents 26.7 PPG. They’ve posted some impressive stats that include 28 sacks, 66 TFL, 14 INTs, and 43 PD. They also have 8 QB hurries and 8 FF.

2016 Arizona Bowl Free Pick

The Falcons won’t do much through the air. They’ll have to run to score. The Jags have a decent rush defense. In our 2016 Arizona Bowl free pick, we’re going with South Alabama at +14 in this game and the under at 55.

The 2016 Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl will be played at 5:30 pm at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, AZ. It can be seen on Campus Insiders.

2016 Arizona Bowl Free Pick: South Alabama +14 and under 55