Week Six College Football Pick: #5 LSU Tigers at #22 Florida Gators

Two Evenly Matched SEC Teams Square Off

pmroczka

October 6, 2018

Two nationally-ranked SEC teams battle today at 3:30 p.m. E.T. as the #5 LSU Tigers (5-0 Overall, 2-0 SEC) play the #22 Florida Gators (4-1 Overall, 2-0 SEC). The Tigers are tied for first in the SEC West with the number-one-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. In the SEC, the Gators are behind the Georgia Bulldogs and Kentucky Wildcats. Our 2018 LSU plays Florida NCAAF pick offers the Tigers at -2.5 and the over/under at either 44.0 or 44.5.

Recent Record

LSU has been up to every challenge thus far. They opened the season against #8 Miami, beating them 33-17. Two weeks later, they took down a very tough #7 Auburn team 22-21. Their last game was against the Ole Miss Rebels. LSU beat them easily 45-16.

This season, Florida has been handling just about every opponent. That is, expect for Kentucky. The Wildcats beat the Gators 27-16 in the second week of the season. After that loss, in the following two games, Florida easily beat Colorado 48-10 and Tennessee 47-21. Last week, Florida took down the #23 Mississippi State Bulldogs 13-6.

In developing our 2018 LSU plays Florida NCAAF pick, we’ve determined that this will be a very tight game. That’s based on both of these team’s recent performances. LSU and Florida both look to certainly be up to today’s challenge.

Edge Recent Performance: Even

Offense and Defense

The basic stats for these two teams are fairly even. LSU is averaging 33.8 PPG, while Florida has been posting 35.4 PPG. Offensive yards are fairly even between these two clubs. On the other end, both have also been fairly even. The Tigers are holding teams to 15.0 PPG. The Gators have been holding clubs to 14.0 PPG. In yards allowed, The Tigers are tough versus the run while Florida has better numbers versus the run.

The Tigers love to run. They have 13 rushing TD to six passing. They’re going up what is a relatively mediocre rush D that allowing 171.0 YPG. For LSU, senior Nick Brossette and sophomore Clyde Edwards-Helaire are a winning combo. Brossette has 481 yards on 103 rushes and six TDs. Behind him, Edwards-Helaire has gained 275 yards in 57 carries as he’s scored five times.

Behind sophomore QB Feleipe Franks the Gators have been productive. Franks has tossed a dozen TD passes and three picks, completing 57.1% of his passes. Three wideouts have 10 to 12 catches each and a total of seven TD receptions. WRs Freddie Swain and Van Jefferson have three TD catches each with Swain averaging 21.4 YPC. LSU is allowing 280 passing yards per game.

O & D Edge: Even

More Specifics: Number Crunching

The Gators may be allowing 170 YPG in rushing, but they’ve been tough versus the rush, accumulating 32 TFL. They also have 15 sacks, 17 PD, and four INTs. Of the eight fumbles they’ve forced, the Gators have recovered 100-percent. The Tigers have notched 13 sacks, 33 TFL, and seven picks. Their passes defended total 23 while they have forced and recovered two fumbles.

Numbers Edge: Even

2018 LSU Plays Florida NCAAF Pick

Here are a few things to consider concerning LSU and Florida. The Gators are a bit banged up on defense. That could be a factor today. The Tigers have been able to score against solid defenses. There were good for 22 points against Auburn, which is allowing opponents 12.6 PPG. The Gator offense has been off and on. With those particulars in mind, our 2018 LSU plays Florida NCAAF pick is taking the Tigers at -2.5. We also think the over/under of 44.0 will go over. We look for LSU to score about 35 points, while Florida tacks about 20 points onto the scoreboard.