Week Six College Football Pick – #19 Texas at #7 Oklahoma

Big 12 Battle at High Noon

pmroczka

October 6, 2018

This is a huge Big 12 matchup, as the #19 Texas Longhorns (4-1) are at the #7 Oklahoma Sooners (5-0). Both teams are 2-0 in the conference. After being upset by Maryland 34-29 in the first week, the Longhorns have run off four-straight wins. Included are victories against #22 USC (37-14) and #17 TCU (31-16). Their last win was 19-14 versus KSU. Texas is the first top 25 team the Sooners will face this season. Although thus far their season has been light, as in the first few weeks OU took down Florida Atlantic 63-14 and UCLA 48-21, the Sooners have been challenged. It took OT for them to beat Army 28-21. In their last game, Oklahoma beat Baylor 66-33. Our 2018 Texas plays Oklahoma NCAAF pick has the Sooners at -7.0 and the over/under at 60.0.

Trends- ATS and Over/Under

Over the past five years, Oklahoma is 5-0 SU, but they are 2-4 versus the spread. Plus, In OU’s last six games, the Sooners have gone over a total of five times. In their last five games versus Texas, they are 0-5 ATS. They are 6-2 SU in their last eight when playing the Longhorns. Texas is 5-1 over their last five contests. The total has gone under is 20 of their last 25 games. If trends continue, you might expect OU to win but not cover and totals to go under.

In terms of the over/under, although OU is averaging 48.6 PPG and Texas 28.8 PPG, the Longhorn D has been very stingy, allowing merely 19.8 PPG. However, we do expect Oklahoma to score around 40 points. At the same time, with OU allowing 23.2 PPG, we can anticipate Texas scoring about 30, as Baylor did versus Oklahoma last week.

Edge: Over 60.0

More on Spread- Offense

Sophomore QB Sam Ehlinger (64.7 COMP%, 9 TDs, 2 INTs) leads the Longhorn attack. Two junior wideouts, Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson, are his primary targets. They have 26 and 24 receptions respectively and each has scored three times. Humphrey has garnered 402 yards as a receiver, while Johnson has 350. Texas’ main mode of attack is through the air. However, senior RB Tre Watson, who has 70 carries and 280 yards for 4.0 YPA, will get about 15 carries today.

The Sooners bring a huge number of offensive weapons to the field. They attack effectively through the air and on the ground. Junior QB Kyler Murray (70.6 COMP%, 17 TDs, 2 INTs) is tough to stop. He’s tossed TD passes to seven different receivers. Look for two to be his primaries today, Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb. Each has five scoring catches with Brown leading the team with 24 catches and 544 yards. Long threats include Brown, Lamb, and Lee Morris. Along with being an accurate passer, Murray can run. The QB is averaging 6.2 YPA and has crossed the goal line four times. He has 285 yards on 46 carries. Sophomore Trey Sermon has the bulk of the carries, as he’s rushed 55 times for 294 yards and two scores. He’s averaging a healthy 5.3 YPA.

Offensive Edge: Oklahoma

Defensive- Shutdown Effect

The Texas defense is tough. They have 30 TFL, 18 PD, and six FF. However, they’ve recovered just one fumble and have posted only seven sacks. In the secondary Cade Stevens and Kris Boyd are the enforcers. Stevens has three picks and one PD, while Boyd has defended seven passes. LB Gary Johnson is tops in TFL with six, while two other players have four each. The Oklahoma D is led by DB Parnell Motely (2 INTs, 6 PD) and LB Kenneth Murray (3 SKs, 6 TFL). The team has 13 sacks, 30 TFL and 20 PD. Their picks total three and forced fumbles two.

The major question for our 2018 Texas plays Oklahoma NCAAF pick is can the Longhorns shutdown such a powerful and diverse offense as the Sooners’? We think they may for a while, but not for the entire game. Plus, we anticipate solid protection for Sooners QB Murray.

Edge: Texas

Our 2018 Texas Plays Oklahoma NCAAF Pick

Texas comes into this game with solid experience, as they have already faced and met the challenge of play two top 25 teams. But Oklahoma has a high-powered offense that is tough to stop. There’s a lot at stake in this game, including tops in the conference. The Longhorn defense is good, but we expect them to get worn down by the second half. Oklahoma at home has a clear advantage today. Our 2018 Texas plays Oklahoma NCAAF pick is OU at -7.0. We are also taking the over at 60.0.