The Hawkeyes have high hopes for the upcoming season as they begin the year ranked #19 in the country. The 2019 Miami (Ohio) at Iowa free pick has a whopper of a spread with the Hawkeyes favored by -24.5 in their home opener at Kinnick Stadium. That’s a ton of points, but at the same time the Redhawks are very, very, overmatched in this one. It’s possible that Miami doesn’t even score Saturday night, a game similar to Wisconsin’s 49-0 shellacking of South Florida on Friday.
Does Miami Have Momentum From a Strong 2018 Finish?
Overall it wasn’t a bad 2018 for Miami of Ohio. The ended up going 6-3 after starting the season in an 0-3 hole with losses vs. Marshall, vs. Cincinnati, and at Minnesota. The thing is Miami doesn’t return a whole lot of people from last year’s squad, bringing back 5 starters on offense and 6 on defense. The biggest hole that the Redhawks face in the 2019 Miami (Ohio) at Iowa free pick is finding a new quarterback. Gus Ragland is gone after playing 37 games in his 4-year career in Oxford.
It may be QB-by-committee for coach Chuck Martin in 2019 but his options are very green. They include redshirt sophomore Jackson Williamson, redshirt freshman AJ Meyer, and true freshman Brett Gabbert. That isn’t a great spot to be in on the road in Iowa City vs. a Hawkeye defense that was 11th in the nation in points against last season. Miami of Ohio also loses their two top RBs from a year ago but does return 3 starters on the O-line.
Iowa Seems to Have Way Too Much Depth
While Miami of Ohio tries to plug and play with youth at the most important position on the field, Iowa has the luxury of returning Nate Stanley for his 3rd year as the starting QB. Stanley has tossed 26 TDs each of the last two seasons and unlike the Redhawks, has the benefit of an experienced backfield returning. The top 3 ground gainers from a year ago are back for Iowa led by Mekhi Sargent who went for 745 and 9 TDs. The combo of Toren Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin also totaled just under 1000 rushing yards between them. Iowa also has an experienced O-line returning, one that is expected to be one of the nation’s best. That bodes well against a Miami (Ohio) team with a lot of new faces on their defensive front 7.
The Hawkeyes should be able to do what they want on offense in the 2019 Miami (Ohio) at Iowa free pick. Their defense should have a field day too with all the inexperience at the skill position that the Redhawks have. The Iowa defense was 7th in total yards allowed in 2018 and had a heavy rotation of players take the field. That helps make up for some of the turnover, including the entire d-line. Iowa does have a very special player in A.J. Epenesa though, a potential top 5 or 10 NFL draft pick as a defensive lineman.
Top Trends:
- Redhawks are 8-1 ATS last 9 overall
- Redhawks are 2-5 ATS last 7 vs. Big Ten
- Hawkeyes are 2-5 ATS last 7 vs. MAC
2019 Miami (Ohio) at Iowa Free Pick
Iowa is giving up over three TDs on Saturday night but it’s hard to expect more than 7-13 points from Miami of Ohio. The Redhawks are simply way overmatched in this one, the only question is how much pain does Iowa want to inflict. The Hawkeyes running game is too good and their O-line is too solid. Iowa will have a hard time not scoring even if up big.
Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes -24.5
