The line in the 2023 Idaho Potato Bowl betting matchup is intriguing, because this is a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions. Georgia State and Utah State are both 6-6 on the season, but each had a decisively different end to the regular season.
Georgia State comes to Boise, Idaho on a five game losing streak after a 5-1 start to the year. On the other hand Utah State was able to salvage their 3-5 record by winning three of their last four with their only loss coming against MWC champ Boise State. Despite these varying closes to the regular season, Utah State is just a -2.5 favorite on Saturday afternoon and it’s no shocker that 76 of bettors are on the Aggies – which is always a red flag.
Why Georgia State Has Value at +2.5
Having over 3/4 of the betting public on one team constitutes an almost guaranteed contrarian play for most bettors in the regular season – but when you throw in the uncertainty of bowl season then Georgia State has value for the outright win.
The Panthers are in a free fall with five straight losses yet are getting less than a field goal? How can we justify a Georgia State cover here? First off the losing streak came against some pretty quality teams that includes 11-1 James Madison (42-14) and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and LSU (56-14). Even though the Panthers really weren’t competitive in those games, it’s nice to get battle tested against elite teams.
Another strange thing about Georgia State getting just +2.5 points is that they’ve had 13 players and counting bail and hit the transfer portal. The Panthers had one of the worst defenses in the country this season giving up 431.9 yards/game including 287.1 through the air, so a play on Utah State looks way, way too easy.
Why Utah State Has Value at -2.5
The betting public absolutely loves Utah State on Saturday and for good reason. Maybe we just don’t overthink this thing and take the better team which is by far the Aggies. Georgia State was struggling even at full strength, but of the 13 players in the transfer portal includes 1,350 yard rusher Marcus Carroll who is off to Missouri and WR Robert Lewis (70 receptions, 881 yards) who is also joining the SEC with Auburn.
Make no mistake, Utah State is down a couple players as well including their top two QBs Cooper Legas (shoulder) and McCae Hillstead (ankle) but that might actually work in the Aggies favor. Levi Williams is slated to start in the same bowl game where he ran for 200 yards and scored 4 TDs for Wyoming as they beat Kent State 52-38 in the 2021 Idaho Potato Bowl.
Williams doesn’t need to lead Utah State to a ton of offense vs. a Georgia State team that was held to 14 points or less in three of their last four games this season. On the flip side the Aggies QB ran for 153 yards and 3 TDs and threw for 2 more as USU became bowl eligible with a 44-41 OT win over New Mexico in the regular season finale.
Free 2023 Idaho Potato Bowl Betting Pick
The line being so low in Utah State’s favor and over 75% of the betting public being on the Aggies side is a red flag to every experienced bettor. This game might ultimately be one to stay away from, but the FOMO is real if Utah State really does dominate like everything on paper says they should.
Free Pick: Utah State -2.5
