The 2024 AFC Championship totals betting is a very slippery slope. Oddsmakers have the O/U at 44.5 which seems low in a matchup between last year’s MVP Patrick Mahomes and this year’s likely MVP Lamar Jackson. These two elite QBs can move the ball at will, so it wouldn’t be a shocker to see this game end 34-31.
On the flip side, this game also features the top two scoring defenses in the NFL during the regular season. Baltimore gave up just 16.5 ppg and Kansas City allowed a mere 17.3 so a 20-17 game would be a complete surprise either.
Why Over 44.5 Has Value
This game features two great defenses, but at the same time Mahomes and Jackson are both the types of QBs that transcend matchups. Mahomes has 3 TD passes to 0 INTs this postseason while Jackson ran for two scores and threw for two more in last week’s win over Houston.
Travis Kelce had 7 catches for 71 yards in the wild card win over Miami and finally found the endzone twice last week in the victory against Buffalo. The Ravens get their star TE back on Sunday as well as Mark Andrews is set to play for the first time since injuring his ankle in week 11.
Mahomes is playing in just his second road playoff game, but the Chiefs have been in the AFC Championship in each of the last five years so they know the drill. K.C. has scored 23 in each of their previous five appearances in this round and Baltimore has scored 33+ in three of their last four games this season (the other one being 10 points in the regular season finale when all the starters sat.)
Why Under 44.5 Has Value
These two teams have played in some miserable weather conditions this postseason. K.C. played in one of the coldest games of the past 20 years in the wild card round with 0° temperatures against the Dolphins without the wind chill which made last week’s 25° at Buffalo seem like a heat wave. Temps were 27 ° last week in Baltimore and although the AFC Championship totals betting matchup should see 45° weather – there’s also a chance for rain showers.
Rainy conditions could take the ball out of both of these QBs hands – at least through the air. Neither team seems like they would have a problem establishing the run game as Isiah Pachecho has 39 carries in two games this postseason while Justice Hill and Gus Edwards combined for 23 attempts last week for the Ravens.
Even if the rain holds off, it’s still tough to get much off this Ravens defense that has held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 20 points or less. Prior to the 27-24 win at Buffalo last week KC held their last five opponents in the regular season to 20 or less.
Free AFC Championship Totals Betting Pick
The majority of the betting public would have to be on the over 44.5 in this matchup you’d think. It’s hard to do in a Mahomes vs Jackson matchup but the play here has to be a contrarian on the under. Mother nature could really help out with that as well.
Free Pick: Under 44.5
