Two teams that were really hot down the stretch meet up in the AAC Championship Memphis vs Houston matchup. The 28-5 Cougars are ranked 18th in the country and have double digit wins over Cincinnati and Tulane so far in the conference tournament. Memphis has won 12 of their last 13 however.
Two of the Tigers’ wins over their recent successful stretch have come against Houston, 69-59 on the road on February 12th and then 75-61 back at home in the regular season finale. Despite the season sweep, oddsmakers have UH as a -3.5 favorite on Sunday afternoon at Dickie’s Arena in Ft. Worth, Texas (3:15 PM ET, ESPN).
Memphis Going Dancing
At 21-9 one might think the Tigers were on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament, but they have a 75% chance at an at-large bid heading into Sunday’s contest. Of course beating Houston and claiming the school’s first AAC Conference Tournament Championship would put Memphis into March Madness automatically,
The Tigers were able to avenge an earlier 16-point loss and a season sweep at the hands of SMU with a 70-63 win on Saturday as -4.5 favorites. It was a balanced scoring attack with no Memphis player scoring more than 12 points. That win followed an easy 85-69 win over UCF in the opener that was powered by a dominant, record-setting 21 point, 20 rebound performance from 6’11 center Jalen Duren.
The only problem with Memphis beating SMU after the Mustangs had beaten them twice during the regular season is that’s the same situation Houston is in on Sunday. The Tigers have two wins over UH, but it’s also tough to beat a team for the third time during one season.
Cougars Look For Second Straight Tourney Title
It’s business as usual for the Cougars, who are making their fourth straight trip to the AAC Championship Game. They were beaten by Cincinnati in 2018 (56-55) and 2019 (69-57), but got revenge last year in a big way in a 91-54 victory that was also at Dickie’s Arena in Ft. Worth (the 2020 tournament was cancelled due to COVID).
Now that Houston has gotten over the hump is it smooth sailing towards a second straight conference title? Their play over the first two games of the tournament would indicate as such, beating the Bearcats yet again (69-56) and toppling Tulane by 20 on Saturday. Fabian White, Jr. had 18 in the win over Cincinnati, but was hurt just 3 minutes into the Tulane game and is questionable Sunday with a back injury.
Free AAC Tournament Memphis vs Houston Free Pick
White averaged 13 ppg in the two meetings with Memphis this season, so his loss will be felt. One would think Kelvin Sampson would rest him for the NCAA Tournament, but we shall see.
Regardless of who goes for Houston, Memphis has some value getting +3.5 points against a team they’ve beaten twice, including handing the Cougars their lone home loss of the season. These two teams posted the top two offenses and the top two defenses in the AAC during the regular season, so in a game that could go either way you take the points.
Memphis 77 – Houston 76
Free Pick: Memphis +3.5
