Oddsmakers have set the April 6th AL free pick total at 9 today in the game between the Orioles and Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The stars are aligning where that number could be 19 and it still might be a good ‘over’ play. As of about 6 hours until game time, the wind was blowing out to left at 13 MPH. That’s gotta bode well for a NYY lineup that includes Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. Plus, Baltimore has some power hitters of their own, especially the red hot Adam Jones. The Yanks are heavy favorites Friday at -175, do they open this game up with the offense?
Baltimore’s PItcher Has Struggled
Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman probably got a lot of texts from friends this morning telling him not to look at the weather report. A strong wind favoring RH batters is the last thing the right hander needs to see after serving up 3HR in 4.0 IP in his first start of the year against the Twins. In total Gausman (0-1) allowed 6ER as his season ERA sits at 13.50 after one start. What’s even more pressing for the April 6th AL free pick is that Gausman was 1-2 against the Yankees last year with a 9.27 ERA. He allowed 4+ ER in four of five starts against New York in 2017 which is definitely favoring the ‘over.’
Of course, they’re still going to play the game tonight. After all, Baltimore captured the series opener 5-2 behind a Jones HR and a 3-5 night from leadoff hitter Trey Mancini. Baltimore scattered 6H and 3ER off NY starter Masahiro Tanaka to get the win as insane +235 underdogs. A win tonight won’t be as lucrative as the O’s are listed at +157 on the ML against New York’s CC Sabathia.
Will the Yankees Get the Offense Rolling at Home?
There’s a big question facing the Yankees offense regarding is it who you play – or where you play that determines success? Obviously this team is built for Yankee Stadium and they put up 18 runs in the first two games there this year, but last night’s 2 run, 4 hit night was an unpleasant surprise. Aaron Judge did have a HR for the second straight game and he’s likely to have another big night against Gausman. Judge has hit .500 (6-12) with 3HR in his career against the Baltimore right hander. Overall the Yankees have hit ..319 against him which should only improve with the wind at their backs.
The April 6th AL free pick starter that could benefit from that run support is CC Sabathia. He earned a ND in his first start of the year but the LH pitched well, giving up just 1ER in 5.0 IP against Toronto while striking out four. The veteran didn’t earn a decision in three starts against Baltimore last year, but his ERA vs the O’s was a bit high at 7.41. Sabathia has allowed 12ER in his last 11IP against the O’s and Jones could be in for another big night while going 24-79(.304) with 5HR in his career against the lefty. Manny Machado could be another bet to get off his early season slump (.222, O RBI) as he is 18-51 (.353) with 3HR lifetime against Sabathia.
April 6th Free Pick Betting
The line has moved early, going from NYY -154 to NYY -175 as the Yankees are the 4th most popular bet of Friday night’s slate. To reiterate, almost every factor behind tonight’s game including pitching, batting, and weather is favoring a high scoring affair. Does that mean this game is going to end 2-1? Probably – but there’s much more relief in banking on a bevy of runs.
Free Pick: Baltimore Orioles / New York Yankees ‘over’ 9
