In the late college basketball game, 11:00 pm ET, two Mountain West Conference teams, the New Mexico Lobos (8-8 Overall, 2-2 MWC) play the San Diego State Aztecs (9-7 Overall, 1-2 MWC). Our Aztecs vs Lobos pick has San Diego State favored by seven points. In recent play, New Mexico beat #6 Nevada on Jan. 5 by a score of 85-58. They have since lost their last two contests, 80-69 to UNLV and 91-76 to Colorado State. Early in the season, the SDS Aztecs lost to #1 Duke 90-64. In their next game, the Aztecs beat Xavier 79-74. At times, this team has played well, like when they took down BYU 90-81, and other times they have struggled, like when they lost to Iowa State 87-57.
Difference-Makers
Our Aztecs vs Lobos pick projects that this game will come down to a few important players. The Lobo backcourt is commanded by senior guard Anthony Mathis and the front is controlled by sophomore forward Vance Jackson. Both are double-digit scorers with Mathis averaging 15.9 PPG and hitting 43.4% of his threes. Jackson is bringing down 7.2 RPG and averaging 12.4 PPG. Three other New Mexico players, all forwards and averaging nine PPG each, are combining for 16 RPG.
SDS looks to three players for much of their playmaking and point production. Two sophomore forwards, Jalen McDaniels and Matt Mitchell, and a senior guard Devin Watson, are their go-to players. McDaniels leads the team with 15.4 PPG and 7.8 RPG. He’s hitting 48.0% from the floor but just 28.6% from downtown. Watson, second in scoring for the Aztecs with 15.3 PPG, is the playmaker, averaging 5.2 APG. Mitchell is tossing up 12.3 PPG.
As far as depth goes, we like the Lobos. They spread the effort out nicely and are prolific three-point shooters. The Aztecs have two dynamite players who, when they are hot, can control the game. Our edge goes to the UNM Lobos.
Edge: New Mexico
Aztecs vs Lobos Pick – Stats
Although the UNM is outscoring SDS 78.1-to-74.8, the Aztecs are holding teams to 69.6 PPG, while the Lobos are allowing 77.1 PPG. They are exceptionally close in shooting percentage, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. Although the teams are also close when it comes to their three-point percentage with the Lobos hitting 36.3% and Aztecs 37.6%, UNM has 23 more threes. That comes down to four more points per game. However, that edge is negated by the combine PF/PA against differential, which offers the Aztecs a four-point advantage. That makes these teams even
Edge: Even
SDS Aztecs vs UNM Lobos Preview – Keys to the Game
Our Aztecs vs Lobos pick offers these five keys to this matchup.
Lobos struggling as of late and need a win
Aztecs are 8-4 at home, UNM 4-2 Away
All but two SDS wins have been by more than seven points
UNM’s average loss is by 10.3 PPG
SDS’s Mitchell has struggled as of late and been inconsistent
UNM’s Mathis and Johnson have been on fire
Edge: New Mexico
Our Aztecs vs Lobos Pick
Our SDS Aztecs vs UNM Lobos preview is going with the Lobos in this one. It’s a close call, but we think that despite their recent losses, UNM does have a chance to cover. Our Aztecs vs Lobos pick is New Mexico at +7.0.
Summary San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos Pick – New Mexico Lobos +7.0
