The Colorado Buffaloes face the TCU Horned Frogs in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament on Tuesday afternoon. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. Colorado enters as the 16th seed with a 12-19 record, while TCU is the 9th seed at 16-15.
Colorado recently defeated TCU 76-56 on March 8 to snap a three-game losing streak. TCU has dropped four of its last five games and struggled down the stretch. The winner will advance to face West Virginia in the next round.
Colorado Preview – Can the Buffaloes Build Momentum?
Colorado’s season has been rough, but they enter the Big 12 Tournament fresh off a dominant win over TCU. In that game, Julian Hammond III led the way with 19 points and tied a career-high with seven assists. Trevor Baskin grabbed 16 rebounds, while Andrej Jakimovski pulled down eight boards to help secure the win.
The Buffaloes have struggled in Big 12 play, but their win over TCU showed signs of progress. They went on a 25-8 run in the final 10 minutes, a strong defensive effort that closed out the victory. Colorado’s improved rebounding and ball movement could carry over to this rematch.
Javon Ruffin hit three of his four 3-point attempts in the win and has been a steady scoring option when healthy. Colorado’s offense has been inconsistent, averaging just 70.1 points per game, but their recent success could give them confidence heading into the rematch.
TCU Preview – Frogs Looking to Bounce Back
TCU closed the season on a disappointing run, losing four of its final five games. In the most recent loss to Colorado, TCU shot just 31.6% from the field and struggled to close the game strong. Leading scorer Noah Reynolds finished with 12 points but shot just 5-of-13 from the floor.
The Horned Frogs missed key free throws in the second half that prevented them from keeping pace with Colorado. TCU’s offensive struggles have been a major issue, averaging just 68.7 points per game this season. Defensively, they have kept games close, allowing 44.2% shooting from opponents.
With free throw shooting concerns and inconsistency on offense, TCU will need a better performance from its perimeter players. Reynolds has been a reliable scorer, but his supporting cast must step up to avoid another early tournament exit.
Key Matchup – Julian Hammond III vs Noah Reynolds
Hammond was instrumental in Colorado’s last win, leading the team in scoring and playmaking. His ability to create open looks for teammates gave the Buffaloes a big edge. Meanwhile, Reynolds will need to improve his shot selection and lead the Horned Frogs’ offense efficiently to keep TCU in the game.
If Hammond controls the pace and continues distributing the ball well, Colorado’s offense could overwhelm TCU once again. On the other hand, if Reynolds can find his rhythm and convert on key chances, TCU’s defense may be able to keep them competitive.
Betting Prediction
TCU is favored by 1.5 points with the total set at 134.5. Colorado has struggled this season but played one of its best games against TCU just days ago. The Buffaloes’ improved ball movement and rebounding could help them keep things close or even win outright.
Expect a low-scoring game with both offenses ranking near the bottom in scoring efficiency. TCU’s struggles from the field combined with Colorado’s recent defensive success make the under a strong play.
Pick: Colorado +1.5 / Under 134.5
Trends to Watch
- Colorado: The Buffaloes have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 21 of their last 37 games (+3.80 Units / 9% ROI).
- Colorado: The Buffaloes have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 37 games (+2.35 Units / 6% ROI).
- TCU: The Horned Frogs have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI).
- TCU: TCU has only hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 34 games (-12.20 Units / -33% ROI).
