The 2025 NCAA Championship Game tips off Monday night at 8:50PM ET inside the Alamodome. Florida and Houston each come in with 35-4 records and long win streaks. Florida has won 11 straight, while Houston has won 18 in a row.
This is the first-ever meeting between the Gators and Cougars in the NCAA Tournament. Florida is a 1.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks, but models like KenPom give Houston a slight edge. Both teams have been dominant all season, ranking among the best in offensive and defensive efficiency.
FLA Preview – Gators Lean on Clayton and a Top Offense
Florida ranks top-five in scoring nationally at 85.3 points per game. The Gators shoot 47.3% from the field and are strong on the boards, ranking third in the country with 39.1 rebounds per game. Their offensive system is built around spacing, quick ball movement, and pick-and-roll sets.
Walter Clayton Jr. leads the team with 18.5 points per game and is shooting over 45% from the floor. He has scored 64 points in Florida’s last two tournament games. Supporting him are Alijah Martin, a downhill scorer, and Will Richard, a reliable perimeter shooter who also rebounds well.
Florida also gets frontcourt contributions from Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh. Condon averages 10.5 points and is a key rebounder, while Haugh provides energy and rim protection. The Gators average 15.5 assists per game and turn the ball over just 11 times per game. Coach Todd Golden’s group is 28-11 against the spread this season and has hit the team total over in 14 of its last 18 games.
HOU Preview – Cougars Push for First National Title
Houston enters the championship game with the nation’s best scoring defense, allowing just 58.5 points per game. The Cougars also allow the fewest made field goals per game (19.6) and hold opponents to 38.2% shooting. They rank first in defensive efficiency and top-10 in rebounding at 26.7 per game.
LJ Cryer leads the offense with 15.6 points per game and scored 26 against Duke in the semifinal. He is one of the best three-point shooters in the country. Emanuel Sharp adds 12.8 points and is a consistent shooter from outside, while Milos Uzan runs the offense and averages 11.5 points.
J’Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler are key inside. Roberts had 11 points and 12 rebounds against Duke, and Tugler had 8 rebounds and 4 blocks. Houston also shares the ball well, posting 15.5 assists per game. The Cougars have hit the moneyline in 31 of their last 32 games and are 10-0 on the road this year. They have also hit the team total over in six of their last eight games.
Betting Prediction
Florida is favored by 1.5 points with the total set at 141.5. This game features the best offense in Florida and the best defense in Houston. The matchup likely comes down to how well Houston can contain Walter Clayton Jr. and force the Gators to use secondary scorers.
Houston’s length on the perimeter and strong defensive rebounding give them an edge in late-game situations. Florida will try to push the pace, while Houston prefers half-court sets. Expect a low-scoring second half and a tight finish. A 68-66 final score in favor of Houston is a strong possibility.
Pick: Houston Cougars +1.5 over Florida Gators
