Michigan State plays Ole Miss in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. The game tips off at 7:09 PM ET on Friday, March 28. Michigan State comes in as the No. 2 seed with a 29-6 record, while Ole Miss is the No. 6 seed at 24-11.
This is just the second Sweet 16 appearance in Ole Miss program history. Michigan State is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019. The Spartans are 15-1 at home this year and have won 29 of their last 35 games overall.
Michigan State Preview – Defense Leads the Way
Michigan State has one of the top defenses in the country. They hold opponents to 40.4% shooting from the field and just 27.8% from three. That three-point defense ranks second in the nation.
Jaden Akins leads the team in scoring and has averaged 13.5 points in the tournament. Tre Holloman has added 14 points off the bench in both games so far. Jase Richardson had 4 assists and 6 points in the last game, helping control the tempo.
The Spartans average just 9.0 turnovers per game, which ranks third nationally. They also average 8.8 steals per game, showing active hands on defense. Michigan State is shooting just 31.0% from three as a team, but their inside scoring and defense have carried them through tough games.
Michigan State has also been strong in the second half, scoring over 40 points per game after halftime. Their first-half defense is holding teams to 31.6 points per game, one of the best in the country. This slow start from opponents gives Michigan State early control in most games.
Ole Miss Preview – Hot Shooting Run Continues
Ole Miss has won two straight tournament games behind strong shooting. They hit 58.2% from the field and made 11-of-19 from deep in their 91-78 win over Iowa State. The team is shooting 49% from three so far in the NCAA Tournament.
Sean Pedulla has scored 20 points in each of the first two tournament games. He also had 8 assists and 4 steals against Iowa State. Matthew Murrell and Moussa Dia continue to give consistent scoring support, combining for 33 points in the last game.
The Rebels average 77.4 points per game, which ranks 94th nationally. They shoot 34.8% from three and 73.6% from the free-throw line. While they are not strong on the glass, they’ve made up for it with efficient scoring and ball movement.
Ole Miss has covered the first-half spread in four straight games. They’ve also gone over the full game total in 10 of their last 14 games. The Rebels have been better away from home lately, winning back-to-back tournament games on neutral floors.
Betting Prediction
Michigan State is a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 143.5. The Spartans are more balanced on both ends of the floor, but Ole Miss has the hot hand from deep. If the Rebels shoot close to 50% from three again, they will have a chance to pull the upset.
Michigan State has been consistent and plays elite defense. They have covered often this season and will try to slow the tempo. Look for Michigan State to win 73-67 and cover the spread. The under is also in play based on recent trends.
Pick: Michigan State -3.5
