The Purdue Boilermakers travel to Champaign to face the Illinois Fighting Illini in their final Big Ten regular-season game on Friday night at State Farm Center. Purdue (21-9) and Illinois (19-11) have both regained momentum late in the season after rough stretches, making this an important matchup for conference tournament seeding.
Purdue is ranked 18th and has won two straight games, including a dominant 100-71 victory over Rutgers. Illinois, meanwhile, bounced back from a historic 43-point loss to Duke by defeating Iowa and Michigan by 20 points each. The last time these two teams met, Purdue edged Illinois 77-71 in a competitive battle. With both teams playing better basketball heading into March, this game could have significant implications for their postseason hopes.
Purdue Preview – Gaining Confidence Before the Big Ten Tournament
Purdue struggled through a rare four-game losing streak earlier in the season, but they have found their rhythm again. The Boilermakers enter this matchup having won their last two games convincingly. In their most recent victory over Rutgers, junior guard Braden Smith put on a show, scoring 23 points with nine assists and hitting seven three-pointers. His strong play has been a key factor in Purdue’s turnaround.
One of Purdue’s biggest strengths has been its rebounding. In the win over Rutgers, they dominated the boards 40-26, showing their ability to control the paint. Purdue’s size and physicality will be tested against an Illinois team that ranks second in the nation in rebounding at 42.9 per game. Controlling the glass will be crucial if Purdue wants to come out on top in this tough road game.
Defensively, Purdue has been solid, allowing opponents to shoot just 41.5% from the field. Their ability to limit second-chance opportunities and force Illinois into difficult shots will be key. Head coach Matt Painter has emphasized the importance of defensive discipline, especially against an Illinois team that has been shooting the ball better in recent games.
Illinois Preview – Riding Momentum at Home
Illinois has responded well after an embarrassing loss to Duke, winning back-to-back games in convincing fashion. Their 93-73 win over Michigan was one of their best performances of the season, fueled by improved three-point shooting. After making just 26.2% of their threes in the 12 games before Michigan, they shot 37.8% in that victory. If they continue to shoot well, they could challenge Purdue’s defense.
The Fighting Illini’s rebounding ability has been a major strength all season. They average nearly 43 rebounds per game, which ranks second in the nation. In their last win, they outrebounded Michigan 43-32, showing their ability to dominate on the boards. Against a strong rebounding Purdue team, Illinois will need to continue that effort to control the pace of the game.
Illinois’ seeding for the Big Ten Tournament is still uncertain, but a win over Purdue could move them up to a No. 6 seed. If they lose, they will likely be the No. 8 seed and face either Indiana or Ohio State in the second round. Head coach Brad Underwood has praised his team’s resilience, and they will need another strong effort to secure a key victory before postseason play.
Betting Prediction
Purdue enters as a slight favorite, but Illinois has been tough at home with a 12-4 record at State Farm Center. The Boilermakers have played well in their last two games, but Illinois’ improved shooting and rebounding advantage could make this a closer contest than expected. Purdue’s defense and three-point shooting could be the difference, but Illinois’ energy at home will make this a tight battle.
The total has gone over in 18 of Illinois’ 30 games this season, and both teams have shown the ability to score. Expect a competitive game with plenty of scoring, but Purdue’s ability to control the pace and make key defensive stops down the stretch should give them the edge.
Pick: Purdue -2.5
