Tennessee Volunteers vs Kentucky Wildcats – NCAA Tournament Preview – March 28, 2025
SEC rivals Tennessee and Kentucky meet for the third time this season, this time in the Sweet 16 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Tip-off is set for 7:39 PM ET on Friday, March 28. Tennessee enters with a 29-7 record and is the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region, while Kentucky is 24-11 as the No. 3 seed.
Kentucky won both regular season matchups, including a 75-64 win on February 11. Tennessee is looking to avoid being swept for the first time since 2005. This is the first-ever NCAA Tournament meeting between the two schools, and the winner will move on to face either Houston or Purdue in the Elite Eight.
Tennessee Preview – Defense Needs to Deliver
Tennessee is known for its defense, ranking top three nationally in field goal percentage defense at 38.2%. They also allow just 62.8 points per game. The team has struggled from deep against Kentucky this year, shooting only 3-of-18 from three in the last meeting.
Chaz Lanier leads Tennessee in scoring and set the school record with 120 made threes this season. He has scored 49 points through two NCAA Tournament games. Zakai Zeigler runs the point, averaging 15 points and 6 assists in the last game.
Forwards Igor Milicic and Felix Okpara bring rebounding strength, with both grabbing 7 boards in their last game. Jahmai Mashack adds energy on defense and leadership as a senior. The Vols are 16-1 at home this year but just 6-5 in true road games.
The Volunteers rank top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They average 29.7 made field goals per game and shoot nearly 74% from the free throw line. Tennessee has also hit the under in 21 of its last 38 games, including 8 of the last 12.
Kentucky Preview – Balanced Offense Has the Edge
Kentucky is averaging 85.0 points per game, ranking fifth in the country. They are shooting 48.1% from the field and 37.4% from three. The Wildcats hit 12 threes in each of their wins over Tennessee this season.
Koby Brea leads the way with 18 points per game during the tournament. Otega Oweh is close behind at 17.5 points and has scored 20 or more 13 times this year. Five different players scored in double figures during the second-round win.
Mark Pope’s team is peaking at the right time. They held Troy and Illinois to a combined 17-of-64 from deep. Kentucky has also covered in 8 of their last 13 games and is 10-3 on the first-half moneyline in their last 13 outings.
Assist totals have also been strong for the Wildcats, with 17.1 per game, which ranks top 20 nationally. They turn the ball over just 10.9 times per game. Kentucky’s first-half offense ranks first in the nation at 39.7 points per half, giving them early momentum in most games.
Betting Prediction
Tennessee is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Kentucky has won both previous meetings and has been hot offensively in the tournament. Tennessee will need to play better defense on the perimeter and improve its three-point shooting.
Kentucky’s spacing and shooting could be too much again for Tennessee, especially if the Vols struggle to keep pace. The Wildcats are playing loose and confident. Final score prediction: Kentucky 76, Tennessee 71. Take the points and the under.
Pick: Kentucky +4.5
