FOX is set to televise the week six matchup between the Michigan State Spartans and Oregon Ducks, with kickoff scheduled for 9:00 ET from Autzen Stadium in Eugene. The Spartans enter the game with a 3-2 record, while the Ducks are undefeated at 4-0. Oregon is heavily favored at -24 points, and the over/under line is currently set at 52 points.
Oregon with Bowl Eligibility on the Line
Michigan State is 3-2 heading into their road game against Oregon, with a 45.7% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They are 2-2 against the spread and have an average scoring margin of +2.8 points. The over/under line for this week is 52 points, with Michigan State’s games averaging 40.8 points.
Michigan State’s offense is 72nd in our power rankings, averaging 21.8 points per game. Aidan Chiles has thrown for 1,058 yards, but he has a passer rating of 65 and has thrown nine interceptions compared to five touchdowns. The Spartans are 33rd in passing yards per game, averaging 237.4 yards through the air.
Michigan State’s defense ranks 35th nationally, giving up 19 points per game. They allowed 38 points to Ohio State last week, with 298 passing yards and 188 rushing yards. They are allowing 117.2 rushing yards per game and 186 passing yards.
Michigan State Faces High-Flying Oregon in Crucial Week 6 Showdown
Michigan State enters Week 6 with a 3-2 record, facing Oregon on the road. Ranked 65th in our power rankings, the Spartans have a 45.7% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They’ve split their home games at 1-1 and hold the same record on the road. The over/under line for this week is 52 points. So far, Michigan State’s games have averaged 40.8 points, with an average line of 45.8 points. Their over/under record stands at 1-3 for the season.
Oregon’s offense is averaging 36 points per game, placing them 27th in the nation. However, they are ranked 20th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 1,192 yards and has a passer rating of 122. Oregon ranks 16th in passing completions and 38th in passing yards, with Gabriel throwing nine touchdowns and just one interception. Oregon leads the nation in completion percentage, connecting on 81.3% of their passes, and they are converting 49% of their third-down attempts. Leading receiver Tez Johnson has 33 catches for 311 yards and four touchdowns. On the ground, Oregon is averaging 155.2 rushing yards per game.
Oregon’s defense has been impressive this season, ranking 21st in the nation by allowing just 18.8 points per game. They’ve held opponents to 115.2 rushing yards per game on 26.5 attempts, which is the 11th fewest attempts in the country. Through the air, Oregon’s defense ranks 21st, allowing just 154.8 passing yards per game and a passer rating of 54.2, the 10th lowest in college football. In their recent game against UCLA, Oregon’s defense gave up just 13 points and allowed only 11 first downs. UCLA managed just 54 rushing yards on 23 attempts and 125 passing yards, with Oregon forcing two interceptions in the game.
Oregon Set to Cover Spread
Our projection for the Oregon vs. Michigan State matchup is a 44-15 win for the Ducks, who are currently favored by -24 points. We believe Oregon will cover the spread as heavy home favorites.
With the over/under line set at 52 points, we see a lot of value in taking the over, as our model suggests a combined score of 59 points.
