The Brewers just finished splitting a 4-game series with Colorado but have been outscored 10-22 in two straight defeats. Milwaukee continues that home stand vs. the Mets in the May 3rd NL free pick. The two teams met last weekend in New York, with the Brewers taking 2 of 3. Milwaukee is favored in the series opener (MIL -132) in what should be a pretty solid pitching matchup (O/U 8.5).
Matz Hopes to Continue His Success in May
The Mets side of this pitching matchup sees Steven Matz take the bump. He was New York’s best pitcher in April aside from not being able to get an out in an April 16th start vs. the Phillies. Other than that, Matz allowed a total of 6 ER in 5 starts over the first month of the season. That includes 2ER allowed over 7IP vs. the Brewers last weekend. That continues a solid history vs. Milwaukee as Matz went 2-0 against the Brewers last year, allowing just 3ER in 11.1 IP. With Matz on the hill, there’s solid value on the Mets at +122 in the May 3rd NL free pick.
The Mets look like a solid wager behind Matz but they are just 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Even so New York is a respectable 9-7 away on the season. New York has been at home the last 10 games, but they’ve also only scored 1 run in the last two. The Mets have had some success against Friday’s Brewers starter however, getting 7 hits in 18 AB (.389) last week against Brandon Woodruff but scoring just 1 run.
Brewers Need a Strong Outing From Woodruff
Milwaukee is not only in the midst of a 2-game losing streak, they’ve allowed 22 runs to the Rockies the last two games. That’s a lot of bullpen usage so the Brewers will need an extended effort from starter Brandon Woodruff in the May 3rd NL free pick. Milwaukee has gone 8-3 in Woodruff’s last 11 starts including 5 of 6 at Miller Park which does bode well. Woodruff also gave up just 1ER over 5IP vs. the Brewers last Saturday. The right-hander has struggled at times this year though, surrendering at least 4ER in 3 of the last 5 starts.
Christian Yelich missed all four games vs. the Rockies with a back injury and is questionable Friday. That would be another huge blow to the Brewers offense even though Jesus Aguilar and Mike Moustakas have hit a combined 5HR and have 15 hits total in the last 7 games. Moustakas had a HR vs. Matz last weekend but overall the Brewers have hit just .216 (16-74) vs. the Mets left-hander.
May 3rd NL Free Pick Betting
The value appears to be on New York as the underdog in this one. The Brewers bullpen is stretched a bit thin, Milwaukee could be without Yelich, and Matz has been dealing except for one start vs. Philadelphia. Woodruff was solid vs. New York last weekend, but has had too many shaky outings mixed in there.
NL Free Pick: New York Mets +122
