The Miami Heat (44-38, 27-14 home) look to extend their series lead to 3-1 in Game 4 against the Milwaukee Bucks (58-24, 26-15 away) in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Miami dealt Milwaukee a convincing 121-99 defeat on Saturday to pull ahead in the series.
Monday’s matchup tips off at 7:30 p.m. EST inside the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. Milwaukee is a 5.5-point favorite and the over/under total is 218 points.
What to Know – Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is the top-seed in the Eastern Conference but continues to play without star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is out with a back injury and is doubtful for Monday’s contest. Giannis played just 11 minutes in the series opener before exiting with the back injury.
With Giannis on the shelf, the Bucks have turned to Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Pat Connaughton to provide the offense. Middleton is leading the way averaging 24.0 points per game through the first three playoff games. Holiday (19.7 ppg) and Connaughton (16.5 ppg) are additional options, with Connaughton currently averaging nearly nine points more than he did during the regular season.
During the regular season, the Bucks averaged 116.9 ppg, good enough for eighth in the NBA, shooting 47.3% from the field and 36.3% from beyond the arc. Milwaukee’s defense was 14th in the league, holding opponents to 113.3 ppg, 45.6% shooting from the floor, and 35.4% from three.
The Bucks are 43-35-7 against the spread this season and 19-18-5 on the road. Milwaukee has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five contests.
What to Know – Miami Heat
The Heat are in the driver’s seat and looking to put themselves in a great position to knock off the top seed in the East. Miami’s win Saturday didn’t come with some cost, losing Victor Oladipo for the remainder of the postseason and Jimmy Butler making an early exit. Butler is questionable for Monday night with a lower-body injury.
Butler has been on fire through the postseason, averaging 30.0 ppg and hitting 60.3% of his attempts from the field. If Butler can’t go, that leaves Bam Adebayo (17.3 ppg), Caleb Martin (14.0 ppg), and Duncan Robinson (12.3 ppg) to pick up the scoring.
On offense, the Heat ranked last during the regular season scoring 109.5 ppg, backed by 46% shooting from the floor and 34.4% from the 3-point line. Defensively, the Heat were second in the NBA, limiting teams to 109.8 ppg, 48.2% shooting from the field, and 35.8% from deep.
Miami owns a 33-51-3 record ATS but only a 16-26-2 record on the home hardwood. The Heat are 4-2 ATS over their previous six games and 4-1 in their last five at home.
The Pick is In
Injuries have riddled this series, and it got worse during Saturday’s Game 3. There are a lot of question marks leading into Monday, but if Butler can’t go, even without Giannis the Bucks sit in a good position to even the series.
The Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -5.5
