Runs are expected to be at a premium in the MLB betting free pick July 13th as Patrick Corbin and the Nationals face Aaron Nola and Philadelphia. Combined these two pitchers have allowed a total of 5 ER over their last 4 starts for a cumulative 0.76 ERA (59.2IP). In that regards it’s a virtual coin-flip on the side (PHI -120, WAS +100) but the total may seem a bit high at 8.5.
Washington Tries to Stay Hot
A big concern for the Nationals was that the all-star break was going to kill their momentum. Washington had won 6 of their last 7 to close out the first half of the season. Those fears were rescinded with a 4-0 win in Friday night’s series opener with Stephen Strasburg completely shutting down the Phillies bats. Washington batters were able to get to Nola earlier in the year too, plating 10ER in back-to-back outings vs. the Philly starter in early April that included 5HR. Even so, Nola has found his groove much better recently and the Nationals still have just a team .228 BA vs. the right-hander in 167 AB.
The good thing for the Washington offense is that they may not need a whole lot of hitting Saturday night the way Patrick Corbin has been throwing the ball. The offseason acquisition has thrown 7.0 IP in four straight starts, allowing just 3 total ER over that span. Three of those starts were at Nationals Park however where the left-hander’s ERA is just 1.96 on the year (5.26 ERA). Corbin allowed 3ER in his last start at Citizens Bank Park on May 4th but shut down the Philadelphia 4 starts ago with just 1 ER allowed.
Phillies Look for Reboot Behind Nola
Aaron Nola was 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2018 but started off his 2019 campaign a bit shaky. The right-hander seems to be rounding into form with 2 ER allowed total over his last four starts. He’s struck out 34 while walking just 8 over that span. Nola had two poor outings vs. the Nationals earlier in the season, but those were just his 2nd and 3rd starts of the year. The right-hander has a 2.85 ERA at home on the season and Philadelphia has gone 26-10 in his last 36 at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies have fallen into 3rd place in the East, now 1.5 GB from the Nationals and 7 behind the Braves. Pitching is not going to be their issue in the MLB betting free pick July 13th, but the bats have some question marks? Philadelphia was shut out in their first game back from the break on Friday night but have had some individual success vs. Corbin. Jean Segura is 7-14 vs. the Washington starter while Bryce Harper is 5-15 with three doubles. The Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 vs. LH starters.
Top Trends:
- Nationals are 6-1 last 7 road games
- Nationals are 20-7 last 27 overall
- Nationals are 1-4 in Corbin’s last 5 road starts
- Phillies are 5-0 in Nola’s last 5 Saturday starts
- Nationals are 7-3 last 10 in Philadelphia
MLB Betting Free Pick July 13th
Corbin’s struggles on the road make Washington less of a sure thing on Saturday. Public bettors love Philadelphia in this one despite the fact they are 14-22 in their last 36 games and fans started to boo the lifelessness at the plate on Friday night. Even if Corbin does struggle, Nola should be his usual stellar self. That should lead to a low scoring affair.
MLB Free Betting Pick: Nationals / Phillies *Under* 8.5
