It was no summer vacation for Milwaukee heading out to California over the last week as they dropped 6 of 7 to the Giants and Padres. Coming back to Miller Park proved to be no better however as the Reds won the series opener 7-1. That was Cincinnati’s 5th straight win and the Reds continue to have great value (CIN +100) vs. the slumping Brewers (MIL -120) in the MLB free betting pick June 21st.
Reds Keep Rolling?
Cincinnati scored yet another win on Thursday night to make it 5 straight victories. That includes a sweep of Houston at Great American Ballpark where they also took the series finale vs. Texas by a score of 11-3. The Reds have put together this impressive run definitely with pitching as they’ve held 5 straight opponents (and 8 of the last 10) to 3 runs or less. Sonny Gray hopes to continue that trend in the MLB free betting pick June 21st. He’s had two straight so-so starts, allowing 3ER each to Philadelphia and Texas. Prior to that however, the right-hander allowed 3 total runs in 3 previous outings (17 IP). Gray has a 3.21 ERA on the road this year and held Milwaukee scoreless over 6.0 IP at Miller Park on May 21st.
With 7 wins in their last 10 games you’d think the Cincinnati bats would be clicking but the Reds have scored more than 4 runs just twice over that span. Jesse Winker does have a .522 OBP in the last week and Yasiel Puig is 11 for his last 26 (.423) with 3 HR. The Reds bats will face Chase Anderson on Friday night and they’ve won four straight vs. RH pitching. Cincinnati is just 19-83 (.229) vs. Anderson but 6 of those hits have been HR.
What Can Milwaukee Do to Turn Things Around
It was a long road trip for Milwaukee as they played on an 8-game road swing at Houston, San Francisco, and San Diego. The Brewers didn’t get an off day in their return home before Thursday’s game which could be why the bats looked so sluggish in the 1-7 series opening loss. Milwaukee had just 5 hits on Thursday night and their lone run was on a Christian Yelich HR. Yelich is 11 for his last 30 (.387) with 3 HR but the Brewers have been held to a run or less in 3 of the last 4. Yasmani Grandal (.143), Ryan Braun (.200), and Mike Moustakas (.250) have all seen their share of struggles over the past 7 days.
Can Chase Anderson survive in a potential pitching duel with Cincinnati’s Gray (O/U 8.5) in the MLB free betting pick June 21st? The right-hander hasn’t faced the Reds yet this season, but is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA at home on the year. Anderson does have a 5.79 ERA so far through three starts in June, failing to get out of the 4th inning in two of those outings. He did go 3-1 in four starts vs. Cincinnati a year ago, but had a 4.29 ERA in doing so.
Trends:
- Reds are 5-0 last 5 overall
- Reds are 5-1 in Gray’s last 6 starts
- Brewers are 4-1 last 5 home games
- Brewers are 8-3 in Anderson’s last 11 home starts vs. team with a losing record
- Reds are 3-8 last 11 H2H meetings
- Under is 9-1 last 10 H2H meetings
MLB Free Betting Pick June 21st
The public bettors are slightly liking Cincinnati in this one (51%) and with good reason as the Reds have won 5 in a row. Both offenses are a little down right now however and Gray should do a solid job of limiting Milwaukee’s offense again Friday. As long as Anderson pitches well – which he should at home – the low scoring game is the way to go.
MLB Free Pick: Reds / Brewers *Under* 8.5
