Minnesota (33-29) took their medicine in a three game sweep at the Yankees this week but they’ll look to bounce back starting with the Friday June 7th Twins at Pirates betting matchup from PNC Park (6:40 PM ET, MLB.TV).
Pittsburgh is plus money at home (+106) even though they just looked good in taking two of three from the 1st place Dodgers at PNC Park. 66% of the betting public is on the Twins (MIN -124) despite them being 2-4 so far on their current road trip.
Why the Twins Have Value on Friday
Minnesota just got swept against New York – but that’s kind of what they do. The Twins are 16-43 vs. the Yankees since 2015 so we can go ahead and throw that series in the recycle pile and move forward. Minnesota is a solid 17-16 on the road, while the Bucs are two games under .500 at home (14-16).
The Twins are getting some reinforcements to their #26 batting average offense (.229) as Royce Lewis has 2 HRs in his last 5 ABs after returning from the IL. Carlos Santana has hit .375 over the last week as well. Also, Kyle Farmer is hitting only .172 this year, but he could be in line for a good day as he’s 8-15 (.553) in his career vs Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller.
The Twins also have some value with Joe Ryan (4-4, 3.38 ERA) up in the rotation as Minnesota has won 7 of his 12 starts this season. Ryan gave up 9 total ER in five starts last month (2.51 ERA), and will be facing the Bucs for the first time in his career.
Why the Pirates Have Value on Friday
Ryan was solid in May for the Twins, but his first start of June did not go so well as he allowed 5ER – and 4HR – in 5.0 IP in a 5-2 loss in Houston. Ryan has never faced the Pittsburgh team before, but he’s squared off against some of the players including Anthony Volpe who is 5-9 in his career vs. the Pirates starter.
Besides Volpe and his past success against Ryan, nearly anybody on the Pirates could have success as momentum is on their side after scoring 17 runs the last two games Pittsburgh has tallied 7+ runs in four of their last six contests which isn’t bad for the 20th ranked scoring offense in the league.
Keller (7-3, 3.42 ERA) being on the mound might be the biggest reason why the Pirates have value in the series opener. The right hander has allowed 1 ER or less in four of his last five, with his worst outing over that span being 2ER allowed on 2 hits over 6.0 IP vs. the Cubs on May 19th.
Free June 7th Twins at Pirates Betting Pick
The Pirates have won five straight Keller starts while outscoring opponents 27-11 over that span. Ryan just gave up 4 HRs in his last start and the way Pittsburgh’s offense is playing this game has to be a play on the Bucs.
Free Pick: Pirates +106
