The May 31st Reds at Cubs betting matchup features two teams slumping hard. Cincinnati and Chicago are a combined 17 games under .500 this month so something has to give before the calendar flips over to June.
The Cubs have lost 10 of their last 13 games and have just one win in the last 10 days. In that regard Cincinnati has played better lately, putting together a four game win streak that included a sweep over the Dodgers and a series opening win over the Cardinals. The Reds have now lost two in a row, and are +124 underdogs on Friday (CHC -146).
Why the Reds Have Value on Friday
Cincinnati might be just 8-18 this month, but have of those wins have come in the past week. The Reds dropped 11 of 12 earlier in the month but put outscored the Dodgers 16-8 in a sweep last weekend.
Friday’s wagering strategy doesn’t necessarily have to even be a bet on the Reds, but instead against the Cubs. Chicago just lost three of four to the Brewers this week and have now lost five straight series’.
Graham Ashcraft (4-3, 4.67 ERA) starts for Cincinnati in the opener and he’s been much better on the road (2.73) compared to at home 7.71. Ashcraft also has a 0.71 ERA in two day starts this season.
Why the Cubs Have Value on Friday
Chicago lost ground on the Brewers this week, getting jumped by the Cardinals for 2nd place and falling to 5.5 games out of first. That being said, the Cubs offense looks like it’s coming to life a bit, scoring 16 runs over the last three games.
The Cubs should have another solid day at the plate in the series opener, as Ashcraft is 1-5 with a 9.45 ERA vs Chicago. Dansby Swanson has a .600 OBP and Ian Happ .500 in his career vs. the Reds starter, while Cody Bellinger has homered in 1 of his 2 ABs vs. Ashcraft.
Javier Assad (4-1, 2.17 ERA) being on the mound also gives the Cubs value in the opener. Chicago has won four of his five starts this month and Cincinnati has a .231 team BA vs the right-hander from Tijuana. Assad has allowed 2 ER or less in all but one of his starts this season and has a 2.08 ERA in five career appearances vs. the Reds.
Free May 31st Reds at Cubs Betting Pick
Chicago is in a slump, but 79% of the betting public are still paying the -146 on the home team for Friday’s matchup. Assad has had a great year, but his worst outing of the season was his most recent start where he gave up 4ER over 5.0 IP.
The price is way too lofty for a Chicago team that has dropped 10 of 13. The Reds have looked better in their last two series’ and offer the much better value in this spot.
Free Pick: Reds +124
