The MLB season is a long one, but the Diamondbacks starting off 2024 with a 14-18 record has to be a bit disappointing after going to the World Series a year ago. One series can’t make a difference – especially in early May – but if Arizona can have a nice weekend starting with the May 3rd Padres at Diamondbacks betting matchup it might be a building block moving forward.
San Diego (16-18) just wrapped up a 2-4 home stand so they need to get out and stretch their legs a little bit. The D’Backs have lost five of their last seven, so oddsmakers making the Padres a slight -118 favorite (ARZ -102) isn’t about the quality of either team – but more lack thereof with two slumping squads. A slight 53% of the betting public like the road club here.
Why the Padres Have Value Friday
San Diego may have just wrapped up an underwhelming home stand but the bright spot in that is they finished it strong – beating the Reds on Tuesday and Wednesday which they hope put a 5-game losing streak well into the rear view.
The Padres haven’t just won two in a row, they’ve done it 6-4 and 6-2 and also had 6+ runs in two losses during their 5-game skid. That’s a strong showing (despite not a great W/L record over that span) from the MLB’s #8 scoring offense which is led by one of the best table setters in the league as Jurickson Profar is 7 for his last 8.
Despite some solid offensive play recently, a couple other things are lining up nicely to give San Diego the lean on Friday night. First, they have Dylan Cease (3-2, 2.78 ERA) on the mound – arguably their ace. Second, Arizona has had to get creative with their rotation after Zac Gallen will miss his scheduled start due to hamstring spasms in his last outing.
Why the Diamondbacks Have Value Friday
Yes it does look doom and gloom for Arizona in the series opener with Gallen missing his start and Cease on the mound for San Diego. In reality though Cease got tagged for 5 ER over 6.0 IP in a 5-1 loss to Philadelphia in his last start, so he’s gettable.
Gallen getting his start pushed back due at least partially to a “bee delay” in the last series vs. the Dodgers, but that also gives Slade Cecconi (1-1, 2.25 ERA) a great opportunity in his 7th career start. The right-hander has gone 6.0 IP in each of his first two outings this season allowing only 5 total hits with 11 K’s to just 1 walk.
The Padres have rattled off a couple nice wins over the Reds, but that was also their first series win since mid-April in Milwaukee. This is a fairly even matchup, with the Diamondbacks taking 7 of the 13 meetings in 2023.
Free May 3rd Padres at Diamondbacks Betting Pick
It’s tough to go against Cease, even after a rough outing in his last start. Cecconi isn’t giving up a whole lot for Arizona either though – but the Diamondbacks have also been held to 1 run or less in four of their last seven. Both sides have value – that’s why the line is so 50/50, but the most likely outcome seems to be a 3-2 game.
Free Pick: San Diego / Arizona *Under* 9
