Two of the top three teams in the AL wild card race meet up on Monday in the August 12th Royals at Twins betting matchup. Minnesota (65-52) currently sits in the #2 spot behind the Yankees while Kansas City (65-53) is just percentage points back making this a significant series.
Even though the two teams have nearly identical records, Minnesota is somewhat surprisingly a -165 favorite for the opener giving KC some solid value at +140. The Twins have dropped four of six and the Royals have lost three of five so neither team starts the week with a ton of momentum.
Why Kansas City Has Value on Monday
The Twins and Royals are tied in the win column so Kansas City at +140 in what seems like a toss up game has some value. KC was just 2-3 in their latest home stand, but are 6-1 in their last 7 road contests.
Of course one major reason the Royals have a chance to win the opener is because Bobby Witt, Jr. is in the lineup. Witt has the 2nd best WAR in the majors (8.1) and leads in batting average (.347), runs (100), and hits (164) to go along with 87 RBI. LF MJ Melendez and 2B Michael Massey are also both hitting better than .385 over the past week.
Kansas City may not need a lot of offense if Brady Singer (8-7, 3.03 ERA) is dialed in like he’s been in posting a 2.27 ERA in July while allowing a run or less in four of six starts last month. Singer had a rough outing to kick off August (4ER in 5.2 IP) but pitched 7.0 IP of shutout ball against the Twins in his season debut.
Why Minnesota Has Value on Monday
The Twins and Royals might be only 1/2 a game apart in the standings, but Minnesota has owned the season series 5-2. The Twins split a 4-game home series with 1st place Cleveland over the weekend, but are still 34-23 at Target Field on the year while KC is a game under .500 on the road.
Minnesota has been held to 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 7 games, but there’s still some potential for offense on Monday. Byron Buxton is hitting .338 with 13 HRs in his last 42 games while Christian Vazquez is going off on a .345 clip over his past 19. Vazquez is 5 for his last 9 while Matt Wallner is hitting .333 over the past week and has reached base safely in his last 13 games.
Witt, Jr. is a stud and an MVP candidate but he’s just 2-12 (.167) in his career against Twins starter Pablo Lopez (10-8, 4.74 ERA). Lopez gave up just 1 ER over 7.0 IP against Kansas City in his season opener
Free August 12th Royals at Twins Betting Pick
There must be a reason Minnesota is way up at -165 for Monday’s series opener because these two teams seem fairly evenly matched. Lopez just got tagged for 4ER over 5.0 IP against the Cubs on Tuesday and has a 5.17 ERA at home. Singer gave up 10 hits to Boston in his last start, but also pitched into the 7th in his three previous outings. The play has to be KC in this spot.
Free Pick: Royals +140
