Even though they are just 68-63 on the season, Minnesota can essentially pack away an AL Central crown with a big series starting with the August 28th Guardians at Twins betting matchup. Rocco Baldelli’s squad holds a 6 game lead over Cleveland heading into Monday’s meeting at Target Field.
The Guardians took two of three in Toronto this past weekend but Minnesota also took three of four from a Texas team that is 16 games over .500 on the season. Cleveland has taken four of the seven head to head matchups this season, but are +136 underdogs in the series opener – the Twins go off as -162 favorites.
Why the Guardians Have Value on Monday
Cleveland is just 29-36 on the road this season, but they had a solid showing over the weekend winning two of three from a Toronto team that is just 2.5 GB of the wild card. The Guardians won Friday’s game 5-2 as +145 underdogs and claimed a 10-7 victory on Sunday at +197 so oddsmakers had a tough time putting a number on them in the series.
The Guardians have some momentum after the big series against the Blue Jays and a perfect opportunity to put a dent in their 6-game deficit in the AL Central at 1st place Minnesota. Cleveland hasn’t visited Target Field since the beginning of June where they split a 4-game series, but also went 13-6 overall against the Twins last season.
One thing working against Cleveland over the last 31 games of the regular season is that they’ve got to rely on a lot of young pitching down the stretch. That includes in the August 28th Guardians at Twins matchup where rookie Xzavion Curry (3-2, 3.51 ERA) makes his first career start vs. Minnesota.
Why the Twins Have Value on Monday
It could be a playoff atmosphere in the Twin Cities this series as a sweep by the Twins could put the AL Central virtually out of reach. Minnesota has fed on the home crowd lately, going 17-8 in their last 25 at Target Field to push their mark to 39-27 on their own field this season.
Minnesota has value even at -162 in this spot because their offense was dialed in over the weekend vs. the Rangers. The Twins tallied 28 runs in their four game series with Texas including a 12-2 victory on Friday while plating 7 runs in their two other victories. Cleveland starter Curry only lasted 2.0 IP in his last outing (6-1 loss to the Dodgers) so his confidence will be a bit shaky.
The Twins send Kenta Maeda (3-7, 4.22 ERA) to the bump on Monday as he tries to boost his resume for a possible berth on the postseason roster. He’s got a manageable 3.43 ERA in August but Minnesota has gone just 1-3 in his four previous starts this month. This will be the first time Maeda has faced Cleveland this season.
Free August 28th Guardians at Twins Betting Pick
Shaky pitching on both sides for this meeting so a side bet doesn’t have much value unless it’s a reach on Cleveland. Instead with Maeda’s 5.57 ERA at home this season combined with the Twins having a big offensive weekend means the play is on the total of 8.
Free Pick: Over 8
