The Monday May 13th Cubs at Braves betting matchup is expected to be a pitcher’s duel (O/U 7.5). Two of the top hurlers in the NL through the first couple months square off when Chicago’s Shota Imanaga (5-0, 1.08 ERA) matches up against Reynaldo Lopez (2-1, 1.53).
Atlanta (24-13) is a -146 favorite for the series opener even as they had a four game win streak snapped on Sunday. The Cubs (24-17) took two of three from the Pirates over the weekend but their bullpen is still causing some concerns (CHC +124).
Why the Cubs Have Value on Monday
Imanaga has been better than expected for the Cubs, as his 1.08 ERA leads the major and his 5 wins are the fourth most. Imanaga has only allowed 5ER all season, and he’s allowed zero runs in four of his seven starts.
Atlanta is great at home this season, but the Cubs are a decent .500 (11-11) away from Wrigley Field. Dansby Swanson (knee) remains out for Chicago, but the Braves could also be short handed on Monday after Austin Riley injured his abdominal on Sunday and is questionable for the opener.
Even without Swanson, the Cubs still have plenty of pop in their lineup as they averaged 7.0 runs/game over the weekend against Pittsburgh. Christopher Morel and Cody Bellinger each have 5 HRs over the past 10 games.
Why the Braves Have Value on Monday
Atlanta has played 8 of their last 10 games on the road and although going 3-5 in those away tilts things should be different coming back home. The Braves are 13-4 at Truist Park this season, and they also were 4-2 in the series vs. Chicago in 2023.
Riley will be evaluated before game time so the Atlanta 3B could be in the lineup or the series opener. While his status is questionable, Marcell Ozuna should be in the lineup to continue his season-long tear that includes leading MLB with 40 RBI and being 2nd with 12 HRs.
The Cubs as a team are just 2-14 against Lopez, so the Atlanta starter is line for another big night. Lopez has allowed 1ER or less in five of his six starts this season and Chicago has some of their big hitters struggling lately. Ian Happ is just 4 for his last 23 (.174) and Seiya Suzuki is 2-10 since returning from the injury list.
Free May 13th Cubs at Braves Betting Pick
Atlanta has some value any time they’re playing at home but Imanaga being on the bump for Chicago throws a wrench in that. With two elite pitchers on the mound and both teams potentially missing some key bats in the lineup the easy choice of a bet on the total seems like the correct one.
Free Pick: Under 7.5
