1st place Minnesota doesn’t feel like a team atop their division considering they have dropped 8 of their last 12 and are just 26-25 on the season. That being said, the visitors have value in the May 29th Twins at Astros betting matchup considering they send the MLB ERA leader to the mound in Sonny Gray with a +105 underdog price tag.
Gray hasn’t surrendered a HR all season, but Houston just hit 7 of them in Sunday’s 10-1 win that completed the sweep of the lowly A’s. The Astros get a nice -125 ML price for the series opener after seeing -270, -320, and -262 over the weekend vs. Oakland. Houston bettors could be back on board here after sitting out the last three games due to no value in the risk/reward department.
Why the Twins Have Value on Monday
Minnesota can win the May 29th Twins at Astros betting matchup for the simple fact that Gray (4-0, 1.82 ERA) is on the mound. He’s allowed 11 total ER through 10 starts this season and his worst outing of the whole year was 3ER surrendered over 5.0 IP (with just 4 hits) in a 4-3 loss to Cleveland on May 6th. That’s a pretty impressive early resume.
Make no mistake, the Twins have to give Gray some help on Monday, something they didn’t do to their starting pitchers on Friday or Sunday in 3-1 and 3-0 losses to the Blue Jays. Saturday showed some of Minnesota’s offensive potential though as they belted out 14 hits including three HRs in the 9-7 win over Toronto.
Minnesota faces J.P. France in the series opener, and he gave up 6ER over just 3.2 IP in his last home start. That was the only start at Minute Maid Park in France’s young career, so who knows maybe the rookie has some jitters at home as he did serve up 3 HRs vs Chicago.
Why the Astros Have Value on Monday
Gray has been a dominant force for Minnesota this season, but it really hasn’t translated into wins as the Twins are 0-4 this month when their ace is on the mound. It almost seems like the Twins offense shuts down when they know Gray is pitching because they’ve only scored more than 3 runs three times in his 10 starts this season.
You have to take the opponent (Oakland) into consideration, but the Astros offense does come into Monday’s game in a groove after Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Abreu, Jake Myers, and Chas McCormick all went deep on Sunday. Alvarez had 2 HRs, Altuve was 7-15 on the weekend, and Abreu hit his first long ball with the Astros so it was a very positive showing.
France didn’t have a great home debut vs the Cubs on May 17th, but he did follow that up with a career high 8 K’s on Tuesday at Milwaukee, giving up just 1 ER over 5.2 IP. France gets a Twins offense that has scored 3 runs or less in five of their last seven so this looks like a great opportunity for the rookie to pick up his first win at Minute Maid Park.
Free May 29th Twins at Astros Betting Pick
Gray should be his usual dominant self, but that’s not necessarily going to mean a Twins victory here. With Minnesota’s offense struggling it seems like the best play here is on a low scoring affair.
Free Pick: Under 9
