Overview
The Chicago Cubs visit the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati for the second game of their three game series versus division rivals the Cincinnati Reds. The Cubs scored 4 runs in the top of the 9th inning to take game one 7-3. The Reds have owned the Cubs over the past few seasons winning 35 of the last 52 meetings although the Cubs have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Head to Head Trends
Cubs are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings.
Home team is 19-7 in Diazs last 26 games behind home plate.
The Cincinnati Reds are 4th in the National League Central with an 8-9 record. The Reds started the season hot winning their first 4 games but then they went on to lose 7 of their next 8 games although to be fair 5 of those losses came against the red hot St Louis Cardinals so I’m still not sure what to think of this Reds team just yet.
On the hill for the Reds today is Anthony DeSclafani who is 2-0 with a tiny 0.86 ERA in his three starts so far this season. DeSclafani has been crazy good so far especially over his last 2 starts allowing up just 4 hits and zero runs in 15 innings of work.
Cincinnati Reds Trends
Reds are 11-5 in their last 16 home games.
Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
Chicago Cubs (-120)
The Chicago Cubs are 2nd in the NL Central with a 9-7 record 2.5 games back of the 1st place St Louis Cardinals. The Cubs have been solid this season especially on the road where they have a nice 5-3 record which may not sound super awesome but the Cubs haven’t exactly been the best road team in the world where they are a total of 78 games under .500 over previous 4 seasons.
Starting for the Cubs today is Jake Arrieta who is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 3 starts this season. Arrieta has pitched very well so far but I have to wonder if he’s been throwing too many pitches. Arrieta has thrown over 100 pitches in each of his starts and the only other time he did that was in 2011 and he got crushed in his next start so I think that is something worth taking note of.
Chicago Cubs Trends
Cubs are 2-5 in Arrietas last 7 road starts.
Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
Conclusion
I’m going with the Cincinnati Reds over the Cubs in this one. I have no idea why the Reds would be a +110 underdog to the Cubs in Cincinnati. The Cubs have not done well on the road over the past few seasons, Arrieta has been really good so far but he has thrown a lot of pitches and DeSclafani has been almost unhitable. With all that I think getting the Reds plus money at home is a gift.
Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds +110
