Overview
The Cincinnati Reds are in Milwaukee today for the rubber match of their three game series versus the Brewers. The Brewers took the first game 9-5 but they they blew a 5 run leed late in yesterday game on the way to a 7-6 loss.
Head to Head Trends
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Over is 10-4 in Fairchilds last 14 games behind home plate.
Milwaukee Brewers (-165)
The Milwaukee Brewers are 4th in the National League Central 5 games under .500 and 12 games out of 1st place. I like the Brewers offense they’re averaging 4.29 runs per game but their pitching can use some work allowing 4.90 runs per game although they have been much better of late.
Taking the mound for the Brewers in this one is Jimmy Nelson who is 4-3 with a 2.92 ERA on the season. Nelson is quietly putting together a pretty solid season he’s allowed 2 or less earned runs in 8 of his 10 start this season so he’s fairly consistent and that’s what you want in a starter especially if you have a decent offense.
Milwaukee Brewers Trends
Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Brewers are 5-1 in Nelsons last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Cincinnati Reds (+155)
The Cincinnati Reds are last in the National League Central 17 games under .500 and 18 games out of 1st place. The Reds bats have some big game potential but for the most part tend to struggle averaging just 3.90 runs per game. Their pitching is the worst in the league allowing 5.92 runs per game mainly because their bullpen is just ridiculously bad.
Starting for the Reds today is lefty Brandon Finnegan who is 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA in his 10 starts this season. Finnegan hasn’t pitched all that bad this season but if your offense can’t score runs and your bullpen blows games flat out it’s really hard for a starting pitcher to get many wins.
Cincinnati Reds Trends
Reds are 0-7 in Finnegans last 7 starts.
Reds are 14-37 in their last 51 road games.
Conclusion
I like the Milwaukee Brewers over the Reds in this one. The Brewers are obviously the much better team in general plus the Reds are ice cold right now losing 11 of their last 12 games and they have also won just 4 games on the road all season.
Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -165
