MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

The Toronto Blue Jays are in Tampa Bay for the second game of their three game series with division rivals the Tampa Bay Rays. The Jays took the first game of this series with a convincing 8-2 win holding the Rays to just 2 hits the entire game. After struggling versus the Rays for what seemed like forever the Blue Jays are actually leading the season series with 8 wins and 6 losses.

Head to Head Trends

Blue Jays are 18-47 in the last 65 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Rays (-118)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 4th in the American League East 14 games back of the 1st  place Baltimore Orioles. The Rays looked like they had turned their season around winning 22 of 29 games starting in late June but they seem to have ran out of steam winning just 6 of their last 17 games. The Rays main problem this season has been their hitting averaging just 3.88 runs per game which is second worst in the American League. The Rays pitching staff has been solid allowing 3.81 runs per game this season which is good for 4th best in the American League. On the hill for the Rays today is Chris Archer who is 8-7 with a 3.40 ERA on the season.

Tampa Bay Rays Trends

Over is 5-1 in Archers last 6 home starts.
Rays are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.

Toronto Blue Jays (+108)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 3rd in the American League East 10 games back of the Baltimore Orioles. The Blue Jays have won their last 3 games in a row and 4 of their last 5 so maybe a wild card spot is not out of the question but they would probably have to win 20 of their last 25 games which is not impossible as they did go a 20-4 stretch earlier this season. Starting for the Blue Jays today is rookie Marcus Stroman who is 8-5 with a 3.88 ERA in his 16 starts this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Trends

Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.

Conclusion

I would really like to bet the Blue Jays in this one as they’re offense is really starting to come around Jose Bautista has 5 home runs in his last 6 games and they’re getting some key hits again. The thing is I can’t bet the Jays today because of Marcus Stroman who has been pretty solid most of the season except when he throws a lot of pitches in his last start and he did throw 112 pitches in his last outing so I’m going to bet the total in this one instead and take the over 7 runs.

Free Pick: Tor/TB over 7 -110