MLB Pick: Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

The Washington Nationals head into Turner Field in Atlanta for a big three game series with division rivals the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have gotten the better of the Nationals so far this season winning 10 of the 16 meetings including 5 of the 6 meetings in Atlanta. This is a trend that goes back a couples seasons now as Washington have won just 12 of the last 39 meetings versus the Braves.

Head to Head Trends

Nationals are 12-27 in the last 39 meetings.
Nationals are 0-4 in Strasburgs last 4 starts vs. Braves.

Atlanta Braves (+118)

The Atlanta Braves are 2nd in the National League East 10.5 games back of the 1st place Washington Nationals. The Braves are having a bit of a tough time right now losing 6 of their last 7 games which included getting swept by the worst team in baseball the Texas Rangers. The one bright side for the Braves is that they are now back at home where they play fairly good. The Braves are 9 games over .500 at home this season with a 40-31 record and average 3.69 runs per game on offense and allow just 3.44 runs per game on defense. Starting for the Braves today is Ervin Santana who is 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA although he has been much better at home this season where he is 10-2 with a 3.51 ERA.

Atlanta Braves Trends

Braves are 8-0 in Santanas last 8 home starts.
Braves are 73-34 in their last 107 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

Washington Nationals (-128)

The Washington Nationals are 1st in the National League East 10.5 games up on the 2nd place Atlanta Braves. The Nationals are 22 games over .500 but a lot of that success has come at home where they are 46-28 compared to on the road where they are 39-35. The Nationals have the second best offense in the National League averaging 4.30 runs per game and they also have the best pitching staff in the NL allowing just 3.50 runs per game. On the hill for the Nationals today is Stephen Strasburg who is 11-11 with a 3.46 ERA but he has struggled on the road this season where he is just 3-8 with a 4.45 ERA.

Washington Nationals Trends

Nationals are 22-8 in their last 30 games as a favorite.
Nationals are 2-7 in Strasburgs last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Conclusion

I’m actually going to go with the Atlanta Braves in this one today even though they have been struggling a bit lately. The Braves have played very well versus the Nationals over the past few seasons winning 27 of the last 39 meetings. Strasburg has also struggled against the Braves in his career as the Nationals are just 5-11 versus the Braves when he starts.

Free Pick: Atlanta Braves +118