August is usually a pretty hot month in Arizona, and not just for temperatures that can reach 120°. The baseball team is starting to heat up again as well, going 6-2 so far including Friday night’s 3-2 win over the visitors which snapped a 3-game win streak for Philadelphia heading into the August 10th Phillies at Diamondbacks betting matchup.
The Phillies were -129 favorites in Friday night’s loss, but did pick up a 6-4 win on Thursday as +115 underdogs. There’s value on Philadelphia at +100 even money on Saturday night with Arizona going off at-120. 65% of the betting public still like the Diamondbacks (64-53) who sit 3.5 GB of the Dodgers in the NL West.
Why the Phillies Have Value on Saturday
Philadelphia almost made it four wins in a row and pushed their mark to 4-1 on their current road trip after tying things up 2-2 in the 8th inning on Friday. That plan fell short though when Adrian Del Castillo hit a walk-off HR in the bottom of the 9th to give Arizona the 3-2 victory in just his second MLB game.
Philadelphia still has value at +100 in game three of the series if anything just because they are 69-47 which is the best record in the NL. Bryce Harper had a HR on Friday and the Phillies had 7 extra base hits in Friday’s win so this is an offense that can explode at any time.
Zach Wheeler had a decent outing on Friday, allowing just 2 ER over 6.0 IP, but he was outdueled by Arizona’s Ryne Nelson who pitched into the 8th and allowed just 3 hits. Aaron Nola (11-5, 3.54 ERA) starts for Philadelphia tied for 9th in the league in wins. Nola has allowed 2 ER or less in three of his last five starts.
Why Arizona Has Value on Saturday
The Diamondbacks have momentum after Friday’s walk-off win as they’ve pushed their mark to 9-2 over their last 11 games – looking like the team that made an improbable run to the World Series last year after heating up down the stretch. Philadelphia leads the NL with 69 wins, but Arizona isn’t far behind with a 64-53 record.
The Diamondbacks face a crafty veteran in Nola on Saturday, but he hasn’t notched a win in nearly a month. Philadelphia has lost four straight Nola starts, and had a 5.40 ERA in one regular season start vs. Arizona not to mention allowing 4 ER in 4.1 IP in taking the loss in Game 6 of the NLCS last year.
Zac Gallen (9-5, 3.75) had a rough outing last time giving up 5ER in 7.0 IP, but he was bailed out by his offense in a 7-6 D’Backs win in Cleveland. Arizona has won four straight Gallen starts, and he’s picked up the W in three of those while sporting a 6-3, 3.28 record at home. Gallen did allow 9ER in two postseason starts against Philadelphia last year.
Free August 10th Phillies at Diamondbacks Betting Pick
Both of these pitchers have had the tendency to give up some runs lately, and they were each collectively rocked by the opponent in last year’s NLCS. Kyle Schwarber has 3 HRs in 13 career ABs vs. Gallen while Jake McCarthy and Kevin Newman each hit better than .444 vs. Nola. It looks like a bigger offensive day on Saturday.
Free Pick: Over 8.5
