Both teams have picked up a win heading into the July 24th Braves at Phillies contest. Atlanta won the opener of the 4-game set 7-2 as -139 favorites while Philadelphia returned the 5-1 on Friday night at -153.
With the favorite getting the win so far through two games at Citizens Bank Park, that would bode well for the Phillies who are listed at -130. Just one game separates these two for 2nd and 3rd place in the East however, and a slight 56% of the public like the Braves (+110) even on the road.
Atlanta Can’t Seem to Get Two in a Row
The trend continues for the Braves, who have now alternated wins and losses over their past seven games. That looks good coming off a 5-1 loss on Friday, but which version of the Atlanta offense shows up in the July 24th Braves at Phillies contest.
Atlanta was clicking on Thursday, getting a grand slam from Dansby Swanson, another HR from Orlando Arcia, and with Freddie Freeman getting on base four times. The Braves could only manage 1 ER over 7.0 IP against Zack Wheeler in Friday’s loss though. Atlanta has had some success against Philly starter Vince Velasquez (3-4, 5.00 ERA) with a .341 team batting average (31-91) with Ozzie Albies belting 2 HR and adding 3 triples vs. the right-hander.
Drew Smyly (7-3, 4.50 ERA) takes the bump for Atlanta on Saturday. Smyly had allowed 1 ER over three starts before giving up 6 ER over his last two (10.2 IP). Smyly has a couple of no decisions vs. the Phillies this season, boasting a 6.75 ERA over 9.1 IP.
Phillies Looked Good on Friday
The 1st seven players in the Philadelphia order all had a hit in Philadelphia’s 5-1 win on Friday night. They were still outhit 9-8 by the Braves which is a little concerning, but Atlanta found a way thanks to a J.T. Realmuto HR and three steals (including home) by Bryce Harper.
Philadelphia got to Smyly earlier this season, plating 5 ER over 5.0 IP back in April. The Atlanta left-hander bounced back with 2 ER over 4.1 IP on June 8th in a 9-5 Braves win. Andrew McCutchen has 2 HRs in 9 career AB vs. Smyly and Harper has also gone deep over 5 career ABs vs. the Atlanta starter.
Velasquez will be making his second start vs. the Braves this season, hurling a gem on May 8th (2 hits over 5.1 IP) in what ended up being an 8-7 Atlanta win. The Braves were -152 favorites in that game at Truist Park. Velasquez looked good last time out (5.0 IP with 1 hit) but is still not out of the woods from allowing 13 ER in two outings prior (8.1 IP).
Free July 24th Braves at Phillies Pick
The Braves have won 4 of their last 5 road games while the Phillies have dropped 4 of their last 5 as a favorite. With Atlanta alternating wins and losses over the last 7, they have value as underdogs in this spot. The Braves are just 3-9 in their last 12 trips to Philadelphia, but they have a great chance to put another win in the win column here.
Braves 5 – Phillies 3
Free Pick: Braves +110
