Milwaukee is due for a loss if their current L-W-L-W-L-W trend continues heading into the June 3rd Brewers at Reds betting matchup. The Brew Crew took the series opener 5-4 on Friday night, but oddsmakers have called Saturday’s second game a toss-up with both teams listed at -110.
The Reds fell for the second straight game on Friday as their record dropped to 26-30, but this is still a team that had won six of seven prior to this two game skid. This is the first series of the year between these two NL Central foes, but Milwaukee posted a 13-6 record against the Reds a season ago. 56% of the betting public still likes Cincinnati to even the 4-game weekend series up on Saturday with a victory.
Why the Brewers Have Value on Saturday
Milwaukee took the opener 5-4 on Friday night as -155 favorites. They needed 11 innings to seal that victory but it was still an impressive W considering starter Corbin Burnes was ejected for arguing with home plate umpire D.J. Reyburn. The 2021 Cy Young Award winner was still able to complete 6.0 IP though while allowing just 2 hits and the Brewers bullpen went the final 5.0 IP allowing just a single hit.
Now Milwaukee turns towards picking up another win in the June 3rd Brewers at Reds betting matchup and they seem to get a favorable opposing pitcher as Cincinnati starter Graham Ashcroft has allowed 10 hits and 7 ER in each of two of his last three starts.
Colin Rea (2-3, 4.89 ERA goes for the Brewers on Saturday as Milwaukee looks for a fourth straight win when the right-hander starts. Much like his team that has alternated wins and losss the last six games, Rea has flip-flopped between good and bad outings recently – but he’s do for a good one after giving up 4ER against the Giants last Sunday.
Why the Reds Have Value on Saturday
Cincinnati seems like the play in this spot just because it doesn’t seem like this game should be a -110 toss-up. The public still leans towards the Reds slightly, but they’re up against the 1st place Brewers who were pretty dominant vs. Cincinnati last season and who have won 19 of the last 26 head to head meetings overall.
Something to remember about the Reds is that although they’ve lost two straight, they also put together a five game win streak prior to that so this is a team that still has some momentum. The Brewers may be in 1st place in the mediocre Central, but they’re also just 3-5 over their last 8 games. Milwaukee has also been held to 2 runs or less in each of those five losses and are also 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win.
Cincinnati starter Ashcraft had a couple rough showings in May, but he ended the month with 3 ER allowed over 5.0 IP in an 8-5 win over the Cubs on Sunday.
Free June 3rd Brewers at Reds Betting Pick
The numbers say to go Cincinnati here, as this doesn’t feel like a game that should be a -110 toss up. Milwaukee looks like an easy play the way Ashcraft put up a 9.21 ERA in May but Rea hasn’t exactly been mowing them down either. There’s an O/U of 10 in this game and with the pitching matchup it definitely feels like the offenses have the advantage here.
Free Pick: Over 10
