Atlanta is rolling through the first two months of 2023, posting a 28-16 record with a 5.5 game lead in the NL East. Almost 1/3 of the Braves’ losses have come in the last 10 days as they had lost five of six, but things could be turning back around as Atlanta has won two straight including the 6-2 victory over Seattle on Friday as -143 favorites.
Seattle has lost four of five now heading into the May 20th Mariners at Braves betting matchup, falling as +132 underdogs in the series opener but with that number dropping to +125 in game two. Atlanta is a -145 favorite and around 59% of the betting public is willing to lay that price tag.
Why Seattle Has Value on Saturday
Seattle may be a solid play at +125 in the May 20th Mariners at Braves betting matchup for the simple reason that Atlanta will be doing a bullpen day. The Braves are sending Dylan Lee to the IL with left shoulder inflammation, meaning Jesse Chavez will be making just his second start in as many seasons.
The Mariners offense didn’t do much in managing just 2 runs in Friday’s loss. That being said, they should be better against a bevy of relievers in the Saturday game and the Seattle offense has put up some good numbers lately at least on paper. J.P. Crawford was 2-4 in the opener and has reached base in 15 straight games. Teoscar Hernandez was also 2-4 and is now 10 for his last 22. Ty France had a 14-game hit streak end in Friday’s loss as well.
With Atlanta in a bullpen day on Saturday, Seattle has a huge pitching edge with Logan Gilbert (1-2, 3.91 ERA) on the hill. Gilbert flirted with a no-hitter and had 10 K’s two starts ago against the Rangers, and has allowed just 7ER over his last 18.1 IP.
Why Atlanta Has Value on Saturday
We would have liked seeing a little lower price tag than -145 with the Braves having to go to their bullpen on Saturday after yet another starting pitcher injury. The fact that the odds are still that high do favor Atlanta a bit, even though the public betting has not followed suit the other way.
Oddsmakers must think that Atlanta can win with their offense even though Gilbert is a tough pitching matchup. Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, and Austin Riley all had multiple hits from the 2-4 spots in the Atlanta lineup on Friday night, and the Braves are now averaging 7.0 runs/game over their last four.
It will be interesting to see how long Chavez goes on Saturday, but the Braves also have the 11th best bullpen ERA in MLB (3.82). Chavez also has 22 K’s in 18 IP this season, and although he may not go long he should get Atlanta off to a decent start.
Free May 20th Mariners at Braves Betting Pick
There’s nothing to justify paying -145 on Atlanta on Saturday in a bullpen day. The Seattle offense is due for a breakout and Gilbert has been solid on the mound over his last few starts.
Free Pick: Mariners +125
