Cleveland has at least managed an opening series split heading into Sunday’s Guardians at Mariners betting matchup, bouncing back from a 3-0 loss on Thursday to claim a 9-4 and a 2-0 win in Seattle the last two days both as underdogs. Oddsmakers are finally showing the Guardians some love, putting them at -105 for the finale.
Seattle has failed to cash in as -162 and -134 favorites on Friday and Saturday, but they see their line drop to -115 on Sunday. Both teams have value here with this fairly even price tag, but over 60% of the betting public like the Guardians to take three of four on this first weekend of the 2023 MLB season.
Why Take Cleveland at -105
The -105 price for the Guardians is interesting, because it doesn’t have the ROI of Friday’s 9-4 win at +148 or Saturday’s 2-0 victory at +123 but that’s still not bad to pay for a team that has won 8 of their last 9 against the AL West (dating back to last year.
Cleveland is up against Marco Gonzales in Sunday’s Guardians at Mariners betting matchup, and he was just 10-15 with a 4.13 ERA last season. Going back to the end of 2022, Terry Francona’s club has won 10 of their last 12 against LH starters.
The Guardians will start Cal Quantrill on Sunday, another reason the -105 price tag doesn’t look too bad to play considering he was 15-5 with a 3.38 ERA last year. Quantrill hovered around the top 30 pitchers in MLB in ERA and WHIP (1.21) and seems poised to etch his name in the upper echelon of pitchers this season after also going 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 2021.
Why Take Seattle at -115
The Mariners have cost bettors the last two days, losing at -162 and -134 but the price has leveled off on Sunday at -115. Throwing the last two games out the window, this is still a team that has won 8 of the last 11 head to head meetings with Cleveland, including 7 of the last 10 at T-Mobile Park.
Quantrill has put together a couple good seasons in a row for the Guardians, but he also only lasted 3.0 IP last September in his only start of the year against Seattle, a 6-3 Mariners victory. Julio Rodriguez was 4-6 in that 11-inning game, and he’s 2-2 in his career against Quantrill (with a HR) and is already 4-13 with two doubles this weekend while Ty France has started off 4-11.
Gonzales had some issues last season, but he did hold Cleveland to 1 run over 6.0 IP at the end of August in a 3-1 Seattle win. The Guardians as a team are hitting just .235 against the Seattle starter as well.
Free Guardians at Mariners Betting Pick
The way to play this game is on the total, which has hit in two of the first three games of the series as each team has been shut out once. Both Quantrill and Gonzales are quality #4 starters, so that number of 8 seems too high.
For the side, it’s a toss-up so you might as well pay the slightly lower price on Cleveland at -105. We’ll be feeling teams out for the first week or two of the season, but the Guardians look poised to run away with the AL Central this season – at least early on.
Free Pick: Guardians -105
Free Pick: Under 8
