Each of the first two games between Cleveland and Chicago this weekend has been a mirror image of each other so who knows what to expect in the July 2nd Guardians at Cubs betting matchup. The North Siders took the series opener in dominant fashion 10-1 on Friday, but must have used up all of their offense in falling 6-0 in game two.
Cleveland comes out as a -120 favorite in the wrap up at Wrigley. The Guardians picked up the win on Saturday against Cubs ace Marcus Stroman, and have a much more favorable matchup on paper on Sunday against the struggling Jameson Taillon (2-6, 6.90 ERA). Aaron Civale (2-2, 3.18 ERA) goes for the Guardians.
Why the Guardians Have Value on Sunday
Cleveland looks like the play in the July 2nd Guardians at Cubs betting matchup for two major reasons. The first is that the Chicago offense was dismal on Saturday managing just 5 hits and getting shut out for the 4th time this season. The other reason to like the Guardians is because Cubs pitcher Taillon has allowed 4+ ER in three of his last four starts.
The Guardians didn’t look great on Friday with just a run and 5 hits, but they have to have confidence after getting to Stroman for 5ER over 5.2 IP on Saturday. Stroman leads the majors in quality starts (14), is in line to start for the NL in the All-Star Game, and Cleveland’s #27 ranked scoring offense still got to him.
Civale hopes he gets the same Cubs offense that showed up on Saturday when Tanner Bibee threw 5.2 IP of 3-hit baseball. Civale is still getting back in the groove after missing nearly two months with a strained oblique, but he had a 3.33 ERA in five June starts. The Guardians have also alternated wins and losses in each of Civale’s seven starts this season, a good omen for a victory in Chicago after a 5-4 defeat to the Brewers in his last outing.
Why the Cubs Have Value on Sunday
Chicago could be worth a play at +100 simply because of the unknown. This team belted out 13 hits and 10 runs on Friday as they looked like they had finally recovered from last weekend’s trip to London to play the Cardinals – then of course only to be shut out on Saturday so who knows what the finale will bring.
There are some reasons to think the Cubs could have another positive showing at the plate on Sunday, one being that Cody Bellinger is red hot going 10-22 over his last 6 games – including having 3 of Chicago’s 5 hits in game two. The Cubs also don’t have a ton of experience against Civale (19 AB) but have hit over .420 against him led by a 4-6 showing from Trey Mancini.
Of course even if the Cubs do get some offense going in this spot the game really comes down to how Taillon pitches. He got tagged for 5 ER over 5.0 IP last time out against Philadelphia and had a 5.60 ERA in June – which was actually an improvement over 10.90 in May.
Free July 2nd Guardians at Cubs Betting Pick
Simply put, Taillon is an automatic fade right now until he puts together an outing where he can get out of the 6th or does not give up 4 runs. The Guardians are going to get theirs on Sunday, but Chicago should be able to tag Civale for a few as well which adds a play on the ‘over’ to the Cleveland pick.
Free Pick: Guardians -120
Free Pick: Over 8
