Oddsmakers are expecting a relatively close matchup for the May 7th Red Sox at Phillies betting contest, making Philadelphia a somewhat surprising -125 favorite. Boston has taken the first two games of this series, running their win streak to 8 games.
The Phillies being favored does seem like somewhat of a trap the way Boston is playing lately, but Philadelphia caught a -161 and a -151 price tag on Friday and Saturday while losing 5-3 and 7-4 respectively. Do we ride the win streak on the BoSox or buy the dip on the Phillies?
Why Boston Has Value on Sunday
The Red Sox 8-game win streak is the longest current run in the majors, but it has flown somewhat under the radar with what 27-7 Rays are doing in the AL East. Boston has pushed their mark to 21-14 on the year which would lead four of the other five divisions in baseball – yet they are still 6.5 GB from red hot Tampa Bay.
Boston has value in the May 7th Red Sox at Phillies betting matchup mainly on their momentum. The Sox took two of three from Cleveland and then swept a four game set with the Blue Jays – all at home and all the wins came with Boston scoring at least 5+ runs so their offense is clicking.
Tanner Houck (3-1, 5.34 ERA) is up in the rotation for the Red Sox on Sunday, coming off 6ER allowed to Toronto on Tuesday but with Boston still pulling out a 7-6 victory. The Red Sox have gone 4-1 in Houck’s five starts this season, mainly because they’ve put up over 8 runs/game in his outings.
Why the Phillies Have Value on Sunday
Bettors have to be jumping off the Phillies bandwagon for Sunday’s game after losing at -161 and -151 so far this weekend. That’s usually the perfect time to buy low at -125, especially when 70% of the betting public is on the Red Sox to run their win streak to 9 games.
The Phillies are on the other side of a streak, dropping their last six games to fall to 15-19 which is 8 games back from the Braves in the NL East. Pitching has been Philadelphia’s downfall, giving up 36 runs in a three game set with the Dodgers and then 6 runs/game so far this weekend.
Taijuan Walker (2-2, 6.91 ERA) will try to right the Phillies pitching ship when he takes the mound in the series finale. Good luck with that though as he’s allowed 13 ER in his last two starts including 5 HRs spoiling a very solid start to the season where he gave up just 5ER over his first three outings.
Free May 7th Red Sox at Phillies Betting Pick
There’s just too much public action on Boston for the Phillies to remain the favorites, indicating the trap has been set. Nobody is taking Philadelphia on a six game losing skid to upend Boston’s 8-game win streak, which is why the Phils are the play. For a bonus, throw in the over 9.5 because both of these pitchers will give it up as well.
Free Pick: Phillies -125
Free Pick: Over 9.5
