Minnesota is a -158 favorite in the May 9th Twins at Tigers meeting despite losing 7-3 to Detroit on Saturday. The loss was the Twins’ 4th in the last five games, although they did tally a 7-3 win in the series opener at Comerica Park.
Detroit at +148 looks solid in what appears to be a toss-up game. Then again the Tigers are in last place in the Central, and just 2-8 over their last 10. Minnesota is also 15-7 their last 22 at Comerica Park, but the Twins are just very hard to trust right now – for that -158 price at least.
What Happened to the Minnesota Offense?
The Twins are still in the top 10 in scoring (4.69 runs/game) but have been held to 3 or less in four of their last five outings. Minnesota has potential for an explode game every time out, but are also just 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a LH starter.
One of those wins against a Southpaw came Friday against Tarik Skubal although Minnesota managed just 2ER over 5.0 IP against the Tigers starter. Josh Donaldson has had a good series going 4-8 with a HR and 3 RBI. Jorge Polanco is also 5-8 the last two games, but Minnesota managed just 3 runs on 13 hits on Saturday.
Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.02 ERA) is largely an unknown coming into the May 9th Twins at Tigers pick. The right-hander had a couple rough outings with 5 and 7 ER allowed, but looked sharp last time out giving up just 2 hits over 5.1 IP against Texas. Maeda allowed 3ER in each of his three starts vs. Detroit last season.
Big Day Coming For Tigers Offense?
Detroit doesn’t seem like an offensive powerhouse, and indeed they are the lowest scoring team in the majors plating just 3.26 runs/game. Something’s been going on lately though, as the Tigers have 6+ runs in four of their last five games.
Jeimer Candelario, Robbie Grossman, and Nico Goodrum are all hitting better than .350 over the past week. Grossman and Harold Castro combined to go 6-7 from the top two spots in the order to power Saturday’s win. Grossman, Goodrum and Candelario are a combined 1-21 in their careers against Maeda however (.048).
Matthew Boyd (2-3, 2.27 ERA) gets the ball for Detroit starting for the first time since April 29th. Boyd missed a scheduled outing because of knee tendinitis, but has allowed 2 ER or less in five of six starts this season. Boyd gave up 3ER over 7.0 IP in his first start vs. Minnesota this year, striking out a season high 8 batters.
Free May 9th Twins at Tigers Betting Pick
Minnesota is just 6-9 on the road this season, but took two of three in Detroit earlier in the year. They won the Maeda vs. Boyd matchup 3-2 back on April 7th, with the Twins being a -176 favorite in that game. This looks like it could be another low scoring game (O/U 7.5) but the teams have also combined for 20 runs in the first two of this series.
Instead the real value is on Detroit. Even though Candelario, Grossman, and Goodrum don’t hit well vs. Maeda, the Tigers did put up 9 runs against him in three starts last season. The Detroit offense is in some sort of zone, so play it as such.
Tigers 6 – Twins 3
Free Pick: Tigers +148
