It’s been a tough start to the season for Miami who is still looking for their first victory heading into the April 4th Marlins at Cardinals betting matchup. Miami (0-7) has also not played teams with especially optimistic outlooks for the year in the Pirates and Angels – and all games have been at home which makes Thursday’s trip to Busch Stadium look like trouble.
St. Louis (3-4) plays their home opener after starting 2024 on the West Coast at the Dodgers and Padres. They stole one in Los Angeles as a +210 underdog and won the series in San Diego but Thursday is the first time the Redbirds have been favored this season (-156).
Why the Marlins Have Value on Thursday
Miami takes their first road trip of the season this weekend but it can’t get any worse than the 0-7 start to the year in South Beach. To be fair the Pirates have started the year 5-1 and the Angels 4-2 so maybe the Marlins did lose to teams that are going to exceed expectations in 2024.
The Marlins face Lance Lynn in this matchup, and they’ve had success against the Cardinals starter as he’s 4-3 with a 5.48 ERA in 10 career appearances against Miami. Tim Anderson hits over .350 vs. Lynn with Luis Arraez going 8 for 25 (.320). Jazz Chisholm also has 2 hits in his 3 career ABs vs. Lynn with one being a HR.
The biggest reason for Miami’s struggles this year has been their battered pitching staff that has allowed 6+ runs in six of their seven games. Ryan Weathers (0-1, 6.75 ERA) hopes for a bit more success in his second start of the year especially as Nolan Arenado (.172) and Paul Goldschmidt (10 K’s in 25 AB) have struggled out of the gate in 2024.
Why the Cardinals Have Value on Thursday
St. Louis is likely satisfied with a 3-4 start to the year considering they had to visit the Dodgers and Padres. Now the Cardinals get to come back home in an attempt to try and improve on last year’s disappointing 35-46 record at home in 2023 that was a big reason why they finished last in the NL Central.
There should be a great atmosphere at Busch Stadium on Thursday, not only because it’s the home opener but because Lynn is back in red. The right-hander pitched in St. Louis from 2011 to 2017 and threw 4.0 IP of shutout ball with 5 K’s in his season debut against the Dodgers on Saturday.
The St. Louis offense ranks 21st in runs/game over the first week of the season but have a great chance of improving on that against Weathers, who has a 6.75 ERA after his first start. The Marlins have allowed at least 9 runs in three of their last six contests so they’re struggling on the front end and the back end of the pitching staff.
Free April 4th Marlins at Cardinals Betting Pick
Miami is just a +132 underdog on Thursday so it’s not necessarily a huge payout to take the risk on the winless team making their first road trip of the season with a 30 degree temperature drop from 81° in South Beach to 51° in the Midwest.
Free Pick: Cardinals RL -1.5 (+138)
