St. Louis aims for a four game split as they wrap up a 4-game split heading into the September 21st Brewers at Cardinals betting matchup. That doesn’t seem likely considering Milwaukee has won the last two games at Busch Stadium while scoring a combined 14 runs while also putting their magic number to clinch the NL Central down to just 4 games with 10 to play.
Despite these two teams being on opposite ends of the playoff spectrum, Thursday’s line has the Cardinals as -115 favorites with Milwaukee going off at -105 for this 1:15 PM ET start. That’s got some obvious trap tingling going off for a St. Louis play but it’s also hard to go against a Brewers squad that has won 7 of their last 10.
Why Milwaukee Has Value on Thursday
When you can get the first place team in the division at -105 in the September 21st Brewers at Cardinals betting matchup up against the last place team you should probably take it. Milwaukee has won five of their last seven overall, and have much, much more to play for on Thursday afternoon than an STL squad that is 18 games under .500 on the season.
Milwaukee’s offense has been dialed in the last two nights, picking up a 7-3 win on Tuesday and tallying an 8-2 victory on Wednesday with another low ML of just -117. That production at the plate looks likely to continue in the series finale on Thursday as St. Louis starts Miles Mikolas who has a 6.50 ERA in three September starts and has allowed 5+ ER in four of his last six starts overall.
Wade Miley (8-4, 3.38 ERA) gets the nod for Milwaukee in this matchup and he’s had some solid road starts since August 1st allowing 7 ER over 14.2 IP in four outings. Miley has a sub 3 ERA (2.98) in away games this year compared to 3.69 at home.
Why the Cardinals Have Value on Thursday
The line alone (STL -115) says the Cardinals could be the play because why wouldn’t everybody be taking Milwaukee? This could be a trap on the Brewers, who may be looking ahead to a late season visit to Miami over the weekend.
The Brewers have won the last two games while piling up a 15-5 scoring margin advantage, but they’ve still only outhit the Redbirds 19-14 which isn’t egregious. Miley has been good on the road for Milwaukee, but St. Louis knocked him out after 1.2 IP earlier in the season – albeit due to an arm strain. Either way both Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are hitting better than .380 in their careers against the Cardinals starter.
Where St. Louis really has some work to do on Thursday is on the mound, where Mikolas (7-12, 4.84 ERA) has been getting torched lately. The right-hander has allowed 10 ER in his last two starts (11.1 IP) but on the bright side is 8-4 with a 3.69 ERA in his career against the Brewers.
Free September 21st Brewers at Cardinals Betting Pick
It’s hard to take a side here because the line seems like a trap, but it did in Wednesday’s game as well when Milwaukee was just -117 and rolled to an easy 8-2 win. The side play would still be on the Brewers, but with this pitching matchup it seems like both teams will put up some runs.
Free Pick: Over 8.5
