New York is making a late season run to the wild card, winners of three of their last four heading into the August 20th Orioles at Mets betting matchup. NY took the series opener against Baltimore 4-3 on Monday night, sending Baltimore to their fifth loss in the last eight games.
New York cashed in as -134 favorites on Monday, a nice bounce back from Sunday’s 3-2 home loss to Miami at -191. The Mets are now just 1.5 GB from Atlanta for the third wild card spot in the NL. With Monday’s loss Baltimore has now fell 0.5 GB from the Yankees for 1st place in the AL East, so they are hoping for better results against a New York team on Tuesday night as slight +106 underdogs.
Why the Orioles Have Value on Tuesday
Baltimore couldn’t get much offense going on Monday, but they did tie things up 3-3 in the top of the 7th before a Francisco Alvarez walk-off in the bottom of the 9th sent New York to a 4-3 win. The Orioles have now dropped three of four, but the series opener was fairly even with both teams collecting 6 hits.
Even though the Orioles have dropped three of four, one of those was a 12-10 loss to Boston on Friday night so their offense is still clicking. Gunnar Henderson has gone deep four times in his last seven games and Mets starter Jose Quintana is struggling, with 9 ER allowed in his last two outings (10.2 IP).
Baltimore sends Dean Kremer (5-9, 4.48 ERA) to the hill on Tuesday and he’s had some issues recently just like his Mets counterpart. Kremer allowed 4ER on August 2nd in a loss at Cleveland and followed that up with 5ER over 4.1 IP in a defeat to Toronto. He did bounce back with 6.0 IP of 1 ER surrendered in a win over Washington on Wednesday so we’ll see if he has his confidence back.
Why the Mets Have Value on Tuesday
Alvarez came up big late for the Mets on Monday on a 3-0 pitch, and J.D. Martinez got New York off on the right path with a 2-run homer in the 1st inning. The Mets need a big series to salvage this home stand, as they had gone just 3-3 over the last place A’s and last place Marlins the past week.
Kremer had a good outing for the Orioles in his last start, but that was also at home and against the Nationals. The Baltimore starter gave up 9ER in his last two road games, and the Mets are hitting well enough to take advantage of that on Tuesday. Jose Iglesias is hitting .462 in his last four games while Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo all have multiple HRs in the past week.
Quintana (6-8, 4.26 ERA) needs a good outing on Tuesday as he’s posted a 6.89 ERA in three starts this month – all Mets losses. The left-hander does have a 3.72 ERA compared to 4.81 on the road and the Orioles hit just .224 against Quintana with 1HR in 49 total ABs.
Free August 20th Orioles at Mets Betting Pick
The number has dropped for Baltimore compared to game one, likely because of Quintana’s struggles for the Mets. Kremer has had some road pitching issues for the Orioles as of late too though, so the best play here is to bank on a better offensive performance from both teams than on Monday.
Free Pick: Over 8.5
