Philadelphia comes off a 4-2 home stand but against two of the three worst teams in the NL in Washington and Miami. The quality of competition amps up a bit in the August 20th Phillies at Braves betting matchup, as Atlanta aims to hold on to the third wild card spot coming back from a long trip to the West Coast.
The Phillies are atop the NL East by 7 games, but the Braves lead the season series with their division rival 4-2. Atlanta is still a home underdog for the opener (+121) with Philadelphia a -131 favorite. The Phillies are just 31-28 on the road this season, with the Braves going 32-26 at home in 2024.
Why the Phillies Have Value on Tuesday
Philadelphia can be a dangerous wager this time of year, as they seem on cruise control for a NL East crown. That was evident in a four game losing streak a couple weeks ago when they were held to 2 runs or less in three of the games, but the Phillies have also bounced back with wins in four of their last five.
You have to think the Phillies have a bit more incentive for this weekday series with the Braves, as a strong showing could essentially close the door on the division (Mets are 8.5 GB). Trea Turner is hot (10 for his last 21, .476) and is also 3-8 with a HR in his career against Braves starter Reynaldo Lopez.
Zack Wheeler (12-5, 2.72 ERA) closed out July with 7ER allowed against the Yankees, but that proved to be an exception to his stellar season. Wheeler has since allowed just 3 ER total over three starts in August (1.35 ERA) and has held opponents to 2ER or less in 8 of his last 9.
Why the Braves Have Value on Tuesday
Atlanta looked like they were in full meltdown mode with a six game losing streak towards the beginning of August, but they may have righted the ship after going 6-4 since then – all on the road in visits to the Rockies, Giants, and Angels.
The Braves took two of three at home against the Phillies at the beginning of July, one of the games being a gem by Tuesday’s starter Lopez. The right-hander threw 6.0 IP of 2-hit ball in that meeting, the third time in his last four starts he allowed 0 ER. Lopez is fresh, being shut down on July 28th for forearm soreness and making his first appearance since then.
Even though Lopez may be walking the fine line between rusty and rested, he’s facing a Phillies offense that is in a bit of a down turn. Kyle Schwarber is hitting just .154 over the past week and is 0-6 in his career against Lopez. On the flip side, Ramon Laureano has 3HR over his past six games for the Braves.
Free August 20th Phillies at Braves Betting Pick
Atlanta had a much needed day off on Monday after returning from a 10-game road trip, but they still might have a little jet lag. The Phillies have some solid value in this spot behind Wheeler, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball all season with the 3rd best ERA and the 4th top WHIP.
Free Pick: Phillies -132
