Most people knew St. Louis was too talented of a team to be mired in the basement of the NL Central, and they’ve been making a run ahead of the May 28th Cardinals at Reds betting matchup. STL has won 10 of their last 13 to move to 3rd in the division.
While the Redbirds may be hot, Cincinnati took the opener 3-1 on Monday as -158 favorites. That number is down to -124 for Game 2 as the Reds have now won four straight. Over 75% of the betting public likes Cincinnati at that reduced price.
Why the Cardinals Have Value on Tuesday
Whenever there’s over 75% of wagers are on one side many bettors automatically lock in a fade of the public and go the other way. Tuesday’s line has only moved from -119 to -124 so the Cardinals have some value as a contrarian play.
Aside from just looking at the betting numbers, there are plenty of reasons the Cardinals can win this meeting. St. Louis looked flat in the opener, but it was also a 4:10 PM ET first pitch after the Cardinals made it in to town in the middle of the morning after their 4-3 win over the Cubs on Sunday Night Baseball was pushed back because of rain and had a late finish. St. Louis should be a bit more recharged for Tuesday night.
Kyle Gibson (3-2, 3.81 ERA) starts Game 2 for the Cardinals looking to hold his opponent to 2 runs or less for the seventh time in his last eight outings. St. Louis has won four of his last six starts.
Why the Reds Have Value on Tuesday
The Reds are 5-2 on their current home stand and something to note about the Cardinals’ recent success is that Monday was their first road game in nearly two weeks. STL has now gone 3-5 in their last 8 road tilts and are 12-15 away from Busch Stadium in 2024.
The Cardinals did get a Paul Goldschmidt solo HR in Monday’s series opener, but Nolan Arenado was 0-4 with a K as he continues a slump that sees him 3 for his last 24. Cincinnati’s Jake Fraley meanwhile has crushed Gibson, going 5-7 with 2 HRs in his career against the St. Louis starter. Gibson has an ERA over 7.50 in two career outings vs. the Reds.
Andrew Abbott (3-4, 2.68 ERA) is on the bump for the Reds Tuesday night coming off 7.0 IP of shutout ball in a 2-0 win over the Padres. Abbot has now allowed just 1ER over his last two starts (14.0 IP) and boasts a 2.11 ERA at home this season.
Free May 28th Cardinals at Reds Betting Pick
There is just too much of the betting public on the Reds to play a side in this game. There wasn’t a ton of offense between these two teams on Monday, and the way both Gibson and Abbott have been slinging it lately it looks like that could be the case in Game 2 as well.
Free Pick: Under 9.5
