Chicago probably thinks they should be going for a sweep in the April 10th Cubs at Padres betting matchup, and they’d have a point. The North Siders let an 8-0 lead slip away on Monday in what ended up being a 9-8 loss at Petco Park before bouncing back for a 5-1 win on Tuesday night.
San Diego has a lot of stars on offense but they’ve been held to 2 runs or less in five of their last eight games. Wednesday’s O/U is just 8, and the Padres have their highest price tag of the series at -152.
Why the Cubs Have Value on Wednesday
Chicago has been the better team over the first two games of their series at Petco this week, even though things are split at 1-1. The Cubs took an 8-0 lead into the bottom of the 6th on Monday before a bullpen implosion let the Padres come back for a 1-run win. Chicago returned the favor on Tuesday, with a Christopher Morel grand slam leading them to a 5-1 victory.
The Cubs have now won 7 of their last 9, with their road record sitting at 2-3 on the season. Chicago’s offense is clicking with 5+ runs in 8 of their last 9 and now rank #2 in the majors with 6.45 runs/game. San Diego’s Dylan Cease (0-1, 3.38 ERA) has a challenge ahead of him in this spot.
The Cubs offense may get theirs in the season finale, but pitcher Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 11.74 ERA) is the big question mark. Hendricks has faced two good offensive teams in the Rangers and Dodgers, but has allowed 5 ER in each of his first couple starts while not pitching into the 5th inning in either.
Why the Padres Have Value on Wednesday
San Diego’s offense is sputtering a bit, but they were saved by the big inning in Monday’s win over the Cubs. The Padres still rank 11th in runs/game in MLB (5.00) and should see more coming on Wednesday against the struggling Hendricks who has given up 10 ER in two starts with three HRs surrendered compared to just 6 K’s.
Manny Machado is 7-17 (.412) against the Cubs starter and was one of the few bright spots for the Padres on Tuesday with a 2-4 night. Ironically Machado struggled in the big 9-run output on Monday but 1-3 in the Padres lineup (Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Jake Cronenworth) each had a HR and accounted for 6 combined RBI so if Hendricks’ confidence is rattled he could get rocked early.
Cease (0-1, 3.38 ERA) makes his third start as a member of San Diego on Wednesday, up against his former crosstown rivals when he was a pitcher for the White Sox. Cease has made five starts against the Cubs with a 3.45 ERA, and he’s allowed 2ER in each of his first two outings in 2024.
Free April 10th Cubs at Padres Betting
Cease has only allowed 2 ER in his first two starts of the year – both against the Giants – while Hendricks looks like he’s on the back 9 of his career. The Cubs have had a good offense early, but they only hit .111 vs Cease as a team albeit in just 27 combined ABs.
Free Pick: Padres -1.5 (+143)
