New York seems like a strange (albeit slight) -115 favorite in the August 25th Giants at Mets contest. The Mets have for all intents and purposes fallen out of the playoff race drifting to 6.5 back and in third place in the East. New York was also blown out 8-0 as -125 favorites against San Francisco on Tuesday, the 8th Mets loss in their last 10.
Despite getting a dominating series opening win, having much more to play for with a 2.5 game lead over the Dodgers, and being 7-3 over their last 10, the Giants are technically underdogs at -105 in this matchup. It looks like a contrarian spot to play the Mets, but so did Tuesday’s game and that was 7-0 San Francisco by the 4th inning. There’s a lot to digest in this one.
Giants Just Keep Rolling
How do you go against the Giants right now, especially with just a -105 price tag for Wednesday night’s contest? San Francisco is 14 games above .500 on the year, and took two of three at home vs. the Mets last week.
The Giants offense was clicking on Tuesday, looking like they’ve benefited from the off day Monday after being in the Bay Area for the last 12 games counting the weekend series in Oakland. Brandon Belt homered twice on his 4 for 5 night, while Lamonte Wade and Mike Yastrzemski also added a deep one.
For as good as the San Francisco offense was on Tuesday at Citi Field, it was yet again another solid pitching performance that belittled the Mets. Sam Long threw 5-1/3 of 1-hit ball and 3 relievers combined to complete the shutout. Jonny Cueto (7-6, 3.89 ERA) is hoping for more of the same as he makes his first start since August 8th after landing on the IL with a flexor strain.
Should Mets Be Favored?
Cueto is making his first start in two weeks, but is that enough to play New York in the August 25th Giants at Mets matchup? New York had just 5 hits on Tuesday as they pushed their mark to 2-9 over the last 11 games.
Make no mistake the Mets have let their season slip away, but to be fair each of their last 11 games have come against the Dodgers and Giants, the two best teams in the majors in 2021. Of course the big problem there is that Wednesday’s opponent is again the Giants. Expect to see Kevin Pillar and Brandon Drury in the lineup in this matchup, as they are a combined 11 for 16 against Cueto. That could make up for Javy Baez being 0-12 lifetime vs. the Giants starter.
Tylor Megill last just 3.2 innings and gave up 7 ER on Tuesday, but being blown out actually helped Luis Rojas stay conservative with his bullpen. Tajuan Walker (7-8, 3.86 ERA) hopes for a little longer outing but that doesn’t really look likely. Walker has allowed 4+ ER in five of his last seven starts.
Free August 25th Giants at Mets Pick
This would be a good spot to fade San Francisco with Cueto coming off a 2-week layoff, but you just can’t with how hot the Giants have been and with Walker struggling for the Mets. Ultimately though, it looks like there will be offense from both sides, hence a total play.
Giants 7 – Mets 6
Free Pick: Over 8.5
