August was supposed to be Minnesota’s time to make a move in the AL Central with 20 of 28 games coming at Target Field. The Twins were just 8-13 to start the month, but they are closing with a bang as they look for their sixth straight win on Wednesday night against the Red Sox.
Boston has had a decent month going 11-16 following an 8-19 July, but are still 9 GB from the third wild card spot so the postseason looks like a pipe dream at this point. Minnesota aims for the sweep and to hand Boston their 8th loss in the last 10 games with a win as -132 favorites in the August 31st Red Sox at Twins matchup.
Fade the Red Sox the Final Month?
Boston has lost three in a row and by a combined margin of 26-11. In two of those games the Red Sox were minus money at -105 in the series finale 12-4 loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday and -101 in Monday’s 4-2 loss to the Twins. Oddsmakers are starting to adjust with Boston +115 in Tuesday’s Chris Archer vs. Kutter Crawford pitching matchup but the result was still the same as the Twins came out on top 10-5.
Boston is a slight +112 underdog in the August 31st Red Sox at Twins matchup, which could actually have some value with Michael Wacha (9-1, 2.53 ERA). Boston has won three straight Wacha starts since he returned from the IL with right shoulder inflammation. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA this month.
The Red Sox have lost five of their last six road games vs. a RH starter. Boston actually outhit the Twins 10-7 in Monday’s loss and had a 4-3 lead in the 5th inning of Tuesday’s defeat so they haven’t played bad. Trevor Story also had a 3-hit night on Monday in his second game back from the IL.
Twins Finding a Way
It looked like Minnesota was going to waste a very favorable August schedule with 20 home games, but they have a chance of closing out the month with six straight wins and have climbed within 1.5 games of the Guardians to try and get back into first place in the AL Central.
What you like about the Twins -132 on Wednesday night is that they are finding ways to win right now. Boston had a 2-0 lead in the 5th on Monday and were up 4-3 in the 5th on Tuesday but Minnesota came back to take them both. Nick Gordon did most of the damage in game two with a grand slam and 6 RBI while Jake Cave and Gary Sanchez also added HRs.
Joe Ryan (10-6, 3.65 ERA) goes for Minnesota in the series finale trying to break the trend of the Twins alternating wins and losses over his last seven starts. The reason that trend needs to stop is because he’s coming off 6.0 IP of shutout ball in a 9-0 win over the Giants last time out. Ryan has a 2.69 ERA at home this year compared to 5.05 on the road.
Free August 31st Red Sox at Twins Betting Pick
A slight 51% of the betting public likes Minnesota to complete the sweep in this spot but the Red Sox do have some value with Wacha on the mound. Boston has had chances to win the last two games of this series, but they’ll be looking ahead to returning back home for a four game set with the Rangers.
Free Pick: Twins -132
