There’s a lot on the line for Cincinnati heading into the September 27th Reds at Guardians betting matchup as they are running out of time to climb into the final wild card spot. The Reds (81-77) are 1.5 GB of the Cubs with the Marlins also to jump as they head into their last four games of the regular season.
There’s definitely more on the line for Cincinnati, but it’s Cleveland (74-84) that is the -130 favorite for Wednesday night’s contest. The Guardians lost to the Reds 11-7 on Tuesday night as -118 favorites, but oddsmakers seem confident in a short two-game series split.
Why the Reds Have Value on Wednesday
The obvious reason to take Cincinnati in this spot is because they have way more to play for. The Cubs currently hold the final wild card spot, but they’ve got a series in Atlanta this week and finish in Milwaukee over the weekend. The Reds are only a game back from the Marlins, but Miami finishes the year relatively easily with the Mets and Pirates so each game here on out is going to be a must win for Cincinnati.
The Reds got the bats going in Tuesday night’s win as +109 underdogs, scoring 11 runs on 10 hits powered by a 2 HR night from Elly De La Cruz. Cincinnati has now plated 11+ runs in two of their last three, but one of those ended up being a 13-12 loss to the Pirates on Saturday.
Andrew Abbott (8-5, 3.70 ERA) will try to power the two game sweep for the Reds. Cincinnati has alternated wins and losses over his last six starts, which could be a good trend to keep going considering they lost 7-5 to Pittsburgh in his last outing.
Why the Guardians Have Value Wednesday
Despite the loss, Cleveland had a pretty good offensive showing on Wednesday, scoring 7 runs and only being outhit 10-9. That was much better than the combined two runs scored over the last two games against Baltimore this weekend, a 4-game series that the Guardians did split however picking up a 5-2 win on Thursday and a 9-8 victory on Friday.
The Cleveland offense should have another positive night in the September 27th Reds at Guardians betting matchup. Cincinnati starter Abbott has a long outing of 4.1 IP over his last three starts and has posted a 5.40 ERA in September, which is actually down from 6.08 in August.
The Reds got just 3.0 IP out of Tuesday starter Hunter Greene as he was tagged for 8 hits and 7 ER (3 HR) before getting pulled. Cleveland also only got 3.1 IP out of Lucas Giolito (5 ER) but have the better chance of getting longer starting pitching on Wednesday with Shane Bieber (5-6, 3.91 ERA) on the bump. Bieber has returned for the tail end of 2023 after being out since early July with elbow inflammation, and he was able to shake off the rust with 5.0 IP against Baltimore on Friday.
Free September 27th Reds at Guardians Betting Preview
Both teams have taxed bullpens after a couple short outings from starters on Tuesday and while we don’t yet know much about Bieber after his return from injury, we know Abbot probably won’t get much into the 5th inning – if that. Both teams did a lot of their damage early in game one, but Wednesday could be a game where we see a lot of runs late which means the total is the way to play it.
Free Pick: Over 8
