We’re only about 30-ish games into the 2024 MLB season, but it’s fairly safe to say that the May 3rd Braves at Dodgers betting matchup seems the most likely pairing for the NLCS. Atlanta (20-9) has won 12 of their last 16 while L.A. is 8-2 over their last 10.
Oddsmakers had a tough job in setting a price for Friday’s series opener, but the Dodgers are at home which gives them the favorite nod albeit at just -116 (ATL -102). These games between elite teams could really be considered a coin flip, but it turns out over 70% of the betting public likes L.A.
Why Atlanta Has Value on Friday
The Braves are 20-9 this season, and have been priced as at least -136 favorites in 9 of their last 11. The fact that bettors can get the Braves at -102 on Friday in what many people feel is a coin flip game almost just makes Atlanta a go-to play automatically.
The Dodgers are on a roll, but they’re also not unbeatable. L.A. has won 8 of their last 10, but both of those losses have came within their last four games. Los Angeles also just spent 9 games on the road, and are only 9-8 at home on the season.
The Braves’ offense hasn’t been super consistently lately, but they will be facing Gavin Stone (2-1, 4.68 ERA) on Friday as he makes just his 10th career MLB start. Atlanta counters with Charlie Morton – who has over 350 starts at the big league level.
Why the Dodgers Have Value on Friday
If Atlanta has value in a “toss up game” since they’ve had such a high price tag over the past few weeks, then the same goes for the Dodgers. Each of L.A.’s last 8 wins have come with a line of -130 or higher, so -116 looks like a great price tag.
The Dodgers have lost two of their last four, but a 7-2 road trip should be celebrated not shunned. L.A. has scored at least 8 runs in three of their last six games, and even though Morton is a veteran pitcher for Atlanta, he’s also had a 4ER and a 6ER allowed outing over his last four starts. Morton also has a 5.70 ERA in 7 career starts vs the Dodgers.
With injuries to the likes of Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and Tony Gonsolin, the Dodgers have to get creative with their pitching rotation. Stone may have a bigger role than maybe even he expected this year, but he’s coming off 7.0 IP of 2-hit ball last Friday at Toronto in what was a 12-2 Dodgers victory.
Free May 3rd Braves at Dodgers Betting Pick
There’s no real argument to make either way on the side to bet on – as these are two top tier teams that could each win this game depending on a couple different bounces of the ball. That puts the best value on the total, and L.A. has scored at least five runs in each of Stone’s five starts this year while Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are a combined 23-59 in their careers against Morton.
Free Pick: Over 9
