Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies look for the split today in the final game of their four game series with their division rivals the New York Mets. The Mets won the first two games of the series while the Phillies bounced back with a 7-6 win in game three. The Phillies have struggled against the Mets this season winning just 5 of the 15 meetings.
Head to Head Trends
Mets are 15-5 in the last 20 meetings overall.
Mets are 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in Philadelphia.
Over is 22-6-2 in the last 30 meetings in Philadelphia.
Philadelphia Phillies (+113)
The Philadelphia Phillies are last in the National League East 11 games back of the Washington Nationals. The Phillies are 12 games under .500 this season with 53 wins and 65 losses. The Phillies average 3.88 runs per game on offense and allow 4.46 runs per game on defense. There is some good news for the Phillies offense they have hit lefties pretty good this season averaging 4.21 runs per 9 innings versus lefties and are 14-13 against left handed starters. On the hill for the Phillies today is David Buchanan who is 6-5 with a 4.39 ERA in 11 starts.
Philadelphia Phillies Trends
Phillies are 5-2 in Buchanans last 7 starts.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
New York Mets (-123)
The New York Mets are 4th in the National League East 8 games back of the 1st place Washington Nationals. The Mets are 6 games under .500 on the season and have shown signs of being a good team at times but they have been few and far between. The Mets average 3.85 runs per game on offense and they also allow 3.85 runs per game on defense. On the road their offense is about the same averaging 3.90 runs per game but their defense is a little worse allowing 4.11 runs per game. Starting for the Mets is lefty Jon Niese who is 5-8 with a 3.51 ERA in 21 starts.
New York Mets Trends
Mets are 0-4 in Nieses last 4 starts.
Mets are 7-19 in Nieses last 26 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Conclusion
I like the Philadelphia Phillies as a +113 home underdog in this one. Mets starter Jon Niese has struggled over his last 3 starts going 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA plus the Phillies hit lefties pretty good so I think they have at least a 50% chance of winning this game and we’re getting them as a +113 underdog so there’s some good value there.
Free Pick: Philadelphia Phillies +113
