At first glance there looks to be solid value on Washington as +100 home underdogs vs. Cincinnati in the August 12th MLB betting free pick. Yes the Nationals just suffered two devastating comeback defeats to the Mets over the weekend, but they’re still back home for the first time after a nice 5-4 road swing. The Reds come off a 4-game series split vs. the Cubs, but don’t seem to have that big of a pitching edge to make them favorites on Monday night.
Reds Have Had a Tough Go Of It in D.C.
The Reds and Nationals have met up 3 times already this year, with Cincinnati scoring a 9-3 series opening win but dropping the next two games 2-5 and 1-4. That 3-game set back in early June was at the Great American Ballpark but it’s hard to expect the Reds to turn things around in Washington where they are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings. Cincinnati has only won 7 of the last 26 meetings between the two teams overall. David Bell’s team could be favored in the August 12th MLB betting free pick mostly because they have momentum going 5-2 over the last 7. 6 of those games were at home though and Cincinnati is just 23-32 going away on the season.
The Reds still have value on Monday night at just -120. Rookie Aristides Aquino plays a huge role in that value as he has 6HR’s in the last 5 games. The right-fielder has hit .452 in 10 games this season. Some offensive support would be a huge boost to starter Anthony Desclafani. The right-hander has allowed 7ER in his last two starts (10.1 IP) but has a 2.17 ERA in 7 career appearances vs. the Nationals. Washington batters have hit just .143 vs. Desclafani in 28 combined AB.
Nationals In a Good Spot Back Home Here?
This would have been a great spot for Washington to be in with Max Scherzer taking the mound after returning from a 10-day road trip. Scherzer will instead miss his third straight start with back stiffness and Erick Fedde will once again take his spot. Sure, Fedde is no Scherzer but he still gives the Nats’ enough where they should be favored on Monday, right? Fedde makes his 25th career start in this contest, coming off one of his better outings of 0ER in 6.0 IP at San Francisco. Do you get that pitcher – or the one who allowed 9ER in 3.2 IP the start prior vs. the Braves?
Fedde did start vs. the Reds on June 1st, allowing 2ER on 6H in 4 innings of work. The right-hander shouldn’t have to be completely great on Monday as the Nationals have momentum as winners of 4 of the last 6 (all on the road). That includes two losses to the Mets where New York scored 6 runs in the 8th inning or later. Washington bats haven’t done much vs. Desclafani with just 4 hits in 28 combined AB. Anthony Rendon continues to stay hot overall though with a .391 average over the last 6 games. Plus…the Nationals are back home where they are 31-25 on the year.
Top Trends:
- Reds are 5-2 last 7 overall
- Reds are 6-0 last 6 vs. RH starter
- Reds are 1-4 in Desclafani’s last 5 road starts
- Nationals are 2-5 last 7 home games
- Nationals are 3-10 in Fedde’s last 13 home starts
- Reds are 7-19 last 26 H2H meetings
August 12th MLB Betting Free Pick
The Reds are favored for a reason in this one. It’s hard to trust Fedde on the mound for Washington and Cincinnati’s Desclafani has dominated the Nationals in his career. The Reds have a streaking young slugger and have value on the road here.
MLB Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds -120
